SMM net news: spot market: yesterday, Shanghai lead continued to fluctuate weak, July contract in the vicinity of Wan Liu continued to struggle, while the holder is continuing to follow the market quotation. On the other hand, in the downstream storage enterprises, it is still mainly on-demand procurement, and the situation of active replenishment of the warehouse has not yet been seen. Therefore, the transaction of spot bulk orders is still limited.
Inventory status: yesterday, lead stocks in the previous period fell by 50 tons to 23470 tons compared with the previous trading day. Such inventory levels are relatively high, while downstream demand has been unable to recover. With the traditional peak season demand of lead-acid batteries gradually approaching, the current focus still needs to pay attention to the actual demand of downstream battery enterprises. At a time when last-term and social inventories total about 57000 tons, compared with just over 7300 positions in July, it seems relatively difficult to close positions in previous years. However, the future needs to pay attention to whether downstream demand can recover in the summer, the current August contract positions of about 51000 hands, and such inventory to position ratio still has the possibility of pressing positions.
Import profit and loss situation: yesterday's RMB midpoint fell 184 basis points from the previous trading day to 6.8881, yesterday's domestic lead prices continued to be weak, the current import profit window has not yet reached the open state. And downstream demand has yet to show clear signs of recovery, and in the face of dismal demand, even if the future import profit window is open, there is unlikely to be a large inflow of foreign inventories.
Price difference between recycled lead and primary lead: the price difference between recycled lead and primary lead narrowed to-125 yuan / ton yesterday, and if the price difference between recycled lead and primary lead occurs, it is likely to herald a gradual recovery in downstream demand in the future, but there is no obvious recovery in downstream storage procurement for the time being. We need to continue to pay attention to the future.
Neutral, yesterday lead prices continue to show a weak pattern of shock, downstream demand is limited, but renewable lead and primary lead price difference has narrowed, the current need to focus on lead varieties of traditional consumption season approaching whether the purchase of enterprises can gradually warm up, and in the operation of the first relatively neutral idea of high throwing and low absorption. On the other hand, enterprises that hold spot can continue to take the operation of selling call options to collect royalties.
Inventory changes in the last period of demand of downstream storage enterprises. (source: Huatai Futures)