SMM News: since the beginning of the year, there have been a number of institutions to predict the continuous improvement of supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum, the current aluminum stocks have fully reflected a variety of pessimistic expectations, there is the possibility of negative.
As previously predicted by Zhongtai Securities in 2020 electrolytic aluminum supply pattern for the "output top, inventory bottom", as long as demand expectations have been further improved, electrolytic aluminum into the business cycle will be inevitable. Given that by early June 2019, the absolute volume of aluminium stocks had fallen below 1.15 million tons, down 600000 tons from the high in the first half of 2019.
Recently, Minsheng Securities also published a research report, it is estimated that the annual supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will have a gap of about 660000 tons, and the structure of supply and demand will be improved. In view of the fact that since the start of work in March, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has dropped by more than 700000 tons from its high point, the inventory has been degenerated significantly.
Zhitong Finance and Economics APP learned that since the supply-side reform, electrolytic aluminum production capacity declined in 2018; 3.84 million tons were put into production in April 2018-2019, and production capacity was reduced by 4.04 million tons over the same period.
From a demand point of view, the main downstream ushered in marginal improvement. First of all, in terms of real estate, from the start and construction area, the growth rate of completed area in the second half of the year may warm up, real estate aluminum is expected to stabilize.
Lyon also reported recently that it maintained a more optimistic view of the real estate construction sector in the second half of the year, based on inventory and land sales analysis.
In terms of electricity, according to the planning and estimation of the power investment of the state grid, the planned investment in the power grid is expected to grow by 5 per cent in 2019 (537.3 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of 0.6 per cent). Minsheng Securities expects aluminum for the power grid to pick up significantly in the second half of the year.
In addition, in terms of cars, the switch between the five countries and the six countries led to better wholesale and retail data in June, and dealers are expected to start replenishing the inventory after August, and sales of the country six cars are expected to improve. Especially in aluminum consumption in the performance of new energy vehicles.
For example, the latest BYD sales volume in June, KuaiBao, data show that BYD vehicle sales reached 228072 vehicles in the first half of this year, a slight increase of 1.59 per cent from the same period last year. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly in the first half of the year, up 94.5% from the same period last year, and the increase of pure electric passenger vehicles was the most significant, with an increase of 301.76%.
If, as expected, the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum gradually improve, the profits of the relevant aluminum enterprises are expected to be repaired, investors can pay attention to Chinalco (02600), the whole industrial chain of electrolytic aluminum, and China Hongqiao (01378), the largest electrolytic aluminum enterprise in the world.
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