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[tuyere] 5G era will bring industry dividend the metal industry is looking forward to taking advantage of the wind
Jul 8,2019 16:41CST
translation
Source:SMM
According to the forecast of the China Academy of Information and Communication Research (2018), the official commercial use of 5G in 2020 will drive China's direct output value of about 484 billion yuan, of which network equipment and terminal equipment will be 450 billion yuan, and indirect output value will be 1.2 trillion yuan; by 2035, the direct output value will be 6.3 trillion yuan and the indirect output value will be 10.6 trillion yuan.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 8: it is reported that the 5G mobile phone will go on sale at the end of July. On June 25, China Mobile announced the completion of the delivery of the first batch of 5G terminals. It is expected to obtain national access to the network in July and launch the market one after another at the end of July. On the same day, Huawei announced that the Mate 20X had won the country's first license for 5G terminal telecommunications equipment to enter the network, and both OPPO and vivo said they would launch 5G phones in the third quarter.

With the introduction of 5G mobile phones, we will gradually enter the 5G era, and will marvel at the life of the 5G era in the future. Will the world in the future be like the movie "player number one"? What will the world be like in 5G? Here, SMM has also done some exploration.

5G network is the fifth generation mobile communication network, and its peak theoretical transmission speed can reach 1GB every 8 seconds, which is hundreds of times faster than that of 4G network. 5G network communication technology has not only improved the transmission speed, but also made outstanding progress in the stability of transmission. The application of 5G network communication technology in different scenarios can carry out very stable transmission, and can adapt to a variety of complex scenarios.

Because of the efficient transmission rate and high frequency transmission technology, 5G is very different from 4G technology, which is why 5G will be more widely used than 4G in many scenarios in the future.

First of all, because the 5G phone is expected to be launched by the end of this month, the earliest formal application of 5G and easy to be widely promoted should be in the field of mobile phones. The theoretical transmission speed of 5G peak can reach 1GB every 8 seconds, which is hundreds of times faster than that of 4G network, so when we download a 1G movie, it can be completed in 8 seconds. This is too different from the current 4G experience, which also makes the user experience a lot better. This is only a small part of the application of mobile phones. In the future, with the wide application of 5G technology and mature use of technology, mobile phones will also be connected to the whole application scene, and most of the things can be done with mobile phones.

The improvement of 5G transmission rate eliminates the problem of information reception delay caused by the time interval. When 5G is used in future traffic, there will be more driverless cars on the road in the future, and there will also be driverless high-speed rail and subway on the railway. Driverless images will appear widely in all traffic scenes, which will bring about social changes. More vehicles will come from computers or remote processors. And most of the workforce will be liberated to do more meaningful or what they want to do.

In industry and agriculture, it will also be one of the more widely used 5G scenarios. If 5G is used in large mines or factories in the future, people will no longer have to go to the site for construction or work, because 5G people can remotely control a machine and work in the office. It can avoid the danger and tiredness of the construction site and reduce the high cost caused by the risk.

At present, 5G has been used in medical surgery. Doctors can operate on patients in real time through undifferentiated transmission, and better medical assistance can be obtained in remote or relatively poor hospitals.

The efficiency of 5G not only brings about the change of personal experience, but also plays a great role in promoting the development of industry and social economy.

As 5G has become a general purpose technology, the scope of application is far more than 4G, so the driving force for upstream and downstream industries will be more prominent. For example, virtual reality in eMBB scenarios, intelligent manufacturing in uRLLC scenarios, these are large-scale industries.

According to the forecast of the China Academy of Information and Communication Research (2018), the official commercial use of 5G in 2020 will drive China's direct output value of about 484 billion yuan, of which network equipment and terminal equipment will be 450 billion yuan, and indirect output value will be 1.2 trillion yuan; by 2035, the direct output value will be 6.3 trillion yuan and the indirect output value will be 10.6 trillion yuan.

Deloitte, a well-known consulting firm, forecasts that the total investment in the global 5G industry chain will reach US $3.5 trillion and the application sales driven by 5G technology will reach US $12 trillion in the period 2020-2035.

As a general purpose technology, the economic value of 5G is not only reflected in the creation of huge wealth, but also in the transformation and promotion of other industries and fields, bringing about all-round changes in social production and life.

The replacement of 5G will lead to a large number of upgrades of software and hardware in related industries. Nowadays, all parts of the country are paying close attention to the deployment of 5G base stations. According to a set of data, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and Wuhan are expected to complete the planned construction of 7298, 20000, 10000, 10000, 12000 and 30224 (27224 microstations + 3000 macro stations) by the end of 2020, together with the 6216 macro stations expected to be completed by 2035 in Taiyuan, totaling 95738. This means that this year and next year, the first batch of 5G base station construction provinces and cities will have 100,000 base stations one after another.

Each base station is built to drive the consumption of metals in the infrastructure. 5G to improve the high-frequency and high-speed performance of copper-clad laminate, the company is expected to be the first to achieve a domestic breakthrough: 5G base station is expected to be large-scale construction, the demand for high-frequency materials is more than 4G ten times; at the same time, the profitability of high-frequency copper-clad laminate is high, the gross profit margin is more than 50%. The 4G era high-frequency board market is monopolized by Rogers, Park/Nelco, Isola and other American and Japanese manufacturers. At present, the company has developed a high-frequency / high-speed copper-clad laminate product system that can mark foreign manufacturers, and can realize industrialization. 5G era is expected to be the first to achieve high-frequency / high-speed domestic breakthrough.

The massive growth of 5G base stations will synchronously lead to a significant increase in the application of components such as PCB, antenna oscillators and filters. At present, the substrate material widely used in PCB industry is glass fiber cloth reinforced epoxy substrate FR-4 (epoxy resin glass fiber cloth copper clad laminate), which is composed of one or more layers of glass fiber cloth impregnated with epoxy resin. At present, the substrate material widely used in PCB industry is glass fiber cloth reinforced epoxy substrate FR-4 (epoxy resin glass fiber cloth copper clad laminate), which is composed of one or more layers of glass fiber cloth impregnated with epoxy resin. Among the raw materials, copper foil is the most important component, accounting for about 30% to 50% of the cost of copper clad laminate (depending on the thickness of copper clad laminate). As a good conductor, copper foil plays a role in conducting and dissipating heat in PCB.

In the high frequency copper clad laminate substrate market, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) resin copper clad laminate is the most important variety of high frequency microwave substrate materials at present, which is expected to usher in a larger growth space in the 5G era.

With the end of the Cold War, the application of MMIC in civilian applications is growing at a rate of 15 to 20% per year, but so far the industry has not reached a high degree of agreement. Only in the aspect of material selection, millimeter wave chips have various materials such as gallium arsenide (GaAs), InP (indium phosphide), gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon-based (CMOS, SiGe). And the major manufacturers in the radio frequency field are still exploring more suitable materials and processes. With the wide application of 5G, the demand for these rare metals and new materials will increase, and the rising demand will inevitably lead to higher prices. The optical chip mainly uses the generation and absorption of photons accompanied by the internal energy level transition process of semiconductor materials (such as InP system and GaAs system, etc.), so as to realize the mutual conversion of photoelectric signals. There is a view that 5G commercial, telecommunications market transmission network expansion, large-scale construction of base stations may bring billions of dollars in the direct market.

With the arrival of 5G commercial, 5G will also usher in a trillion-level market. Based on optimistic expectations, industrial innovation around 5G has long been carried out. Chip factories, operators, equipment manufacturers continue to compete in the game, has silently gone through several rounds; terminal equipment manufacturers are eager to try, more 5G mobile phone terminals are about to come out; all kinds of downstream application companies are eagerly looking forward to planning a new industry growth point in the 5G era.

In the trillion-level communication infrastructure market, communication equipment often comes first. According to the analysis of Changjiang Securities, in the 5G investment, the wireless access network (RAN) accounts for at least 50% of the total investment, which is the most important part of the 5G investment, and the wireless access network is composed of a large number of base stations. Considering the commercial cost, 5G will also be composed of more and more small base stations, which will bring huge dividends to the development of small base stations.

5G terminal is ready to be launched, and it is also considered to be of commercial value. Qorvo predicts that in the next 10 years, 5G terminals will become the fastest growing part of the mobile phone industry. According to StrategyAnalytics, shipments of 5G terminals will grow from 2 million units in 2019 to 1.5 billion units in 2025. 4G phones have the biggest manufacturing costs in screens and processors, but industry insiders in the communications industry believe the biggest costs for 5G phones may shift to the full RF package. Analysis shows that a 4G all-Netcom mobile phone, radio frequency front-end suite often contains 2 to 3 power amplifiers, 2 to 4 switches, 6 to 10 filters, the cost is about $8 to $10, but in the 5G era, the RF front-end suite is likely to cost $25 to $40, more than the phone's main chip. If the 5G phone explodes in the future, it will also lead to an increase in consumption of lithium-ion batteries.

Trillions of scale communication market iteration, often means the dividend of the whole industry chain. In addition to the dividends at the upstream infrastructure and the terminal supply chain, more downstream applications are expected to be higher than those at the end of the terminal supply chain. Some reports estimate that upstream infrastructure investment may reach 3.3 trillion yuan by 2025, and downstream applications are expected to reach 6.6 trillion yuan; by 2030, these two figures may reach 6.3 trillion and 10.6 trillion, which is about 12.8 per cent of China's GDP in 2017.

 

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