7.8 minutes of the internal aluminum morning meeting at SMM

Market surface: on Friday, the US index rallied, the basic metals were under pressure, and Lun Aluminum also ended its second consecutive day of gains, closing at US $1804.5 / ton, down US $5 / ton, or 0.28%. Shanghai Aluminium's performance on Friday night was volatile, closing at 13795 yuan / ton.

Macro: (1) on the evening of the 5th, the US non-farm data for June not only rose sharply from the previous month, but also far exceeded expectations of 224000 new non-farm payrolls, with a previous value of 72000 and an expected value of 160000. After the release of the data, the US index rose to a high of 97.446 in the short term, which also greatly reduced the market's expectations of the Fed's recent interest rate cut. (2) the second round of central eco-environmental protection supervision will be launched in the near future. According to the Ministry of Environment and Ecology, China's eco-environmental protection has made unprecedented efforts at the level of law enforcement and supervision in recent years. It is promoting the formation of a new pattern of ecological protection supervision with a more sound mechanism, stronger supervision and stricter protection.

Basic: on the cost side, SMM combs and updates the weighted electricity price of electrolytic aluminum plants in different provinces in China. Among them, the provinces with the highest weighted comprehensive electricity price of self-provided electricity and network electricity are Liaoning 0.48yuan / degree, Henan 0.406 yuan / degree and Fujian 0.39yuan / degree respectively. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the three places have reduced production due to loss, and the prices of outlets in Qinghai and Gansu have declined to varying degrees. On the alumina side, last Friday SMM alumina quoted 2723 yuan / ton, down nearly 120 yuan / ton from the previous Friday. SMM data show that China's alumina (metallurgical grade) output in June (30 days) was 5.762 million tons, with an annual operating capacity of 70.107 million tons per day and an average daily output of 192000 tons. In June (30 days), China's electrolytic aluminum production was 2.933 million tons, down 2.91 percent from the same period last year, and the total domestic electrolytic aluminum output from January to June 2019 was 17.497 million tons, down 1.6 percent from the same period last year.

Spot: on Friday, the transaction price between Wuxi and Shanghai was between 13790 and 13810 yuan / ton, up 10 to 20 yuan / ton for that month, about 30 yuan / ton from last Thursday, and between 13820 and 13840 yuan / ton in Hangzhou. There was an adequate supply of goods on Friday, because the aluminum price rose for two days in a row, and the holder had started the supply at a low level a few days ago, so the shipment was active, and some middlemen who signed weekly or monthly average purchase orders picked up the goods actively. Resale spot is also more active, and trading enthusiasm with traders. Due to the demand for stock near the weekend, the willingness to receive goods increased significantly on Friday, and the buying status was significantly better than that of the previous two days. East China as a whole was better on Friday than the day before.

Summary: we maintain the previous point of view unchanged, the speed of domestic electrolytic aluminum storage slowed down, alumina prices have not yet come to the end, the market is worried that July-August consumption off-season may be exhausted, the previous aluminum prices unilateral weakness, but extrapolated to the September consumption season brought about by the accelerated storage market, you can try in 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton layout.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)