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[July 8 SMM lead internal morning meeting record]
Jul 8,2019 09:24CST
translation
Source:SMM
Lun lead closed for 5 consecutive yin, below the temporary storage 40-day moving average support, the future test of 1850 U.S. dollars / ton support; Shanghai lead still continues to range volatility, short-term attention to box low support strength (15800 to 15900 yuan / ton); SMM1# lead price is expected to be flat today.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that after the June quarter adjustment, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 224000, which is expected to increase by 160000, far exceeding expectations. The previous value was revised to 72000, and the US index rose 0.53 percent. The unemployment rate in the United States in June was 3.7%, expected to be 3.6%, and the previous value was 3.6%. According to the analysis of relevant people, the non-agricultural data in June exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose slightly and the hourly wage growth slowed, making it possible for the market to lower the probability of the Fed's short-term interest rate cut, but because the unemployment rate and hourly wage were lower than expected, and the US PMI index has been falling, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is still high.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange will hold Science and Technology Innovation Board's first listing ceremony today. A shares are about to usher in the busiest "New Golden week" in history, with 21 new shares to be purchased every day. For the upcoming Science and Technology Innovation Board New Golden week, Wednesday 9 new shares on the same day to apply for, this is the first time in the history of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, this is the first time in the history of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Recently, the CBRC has issued an interview warning for some trust companies that have recently grown too fast and increased too much in the real estate trust business; an insider who was interviewed by the company said that the supervision of the interview trust company is not to let the company "across the board", but to rationally deal with the risk of the rapid development of the real estate trust business, and guide the healthy and healthy development of the industry.

Fundamentals:

Last week, lead prices were low and volatile, terminal consumption did not improve, storage enterprises to sell fixed production, but in the spot lead prices fell to around 10,000, some storage enterprises began rigid demand procurement, but the overall market trading is still light; In terms of primary lead, the bulk orders of refineries are generally shipped by discount, but in July, the capital flow of enterprises is somewhat relaxed, and the spot discount has been narrowed. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation for SMM1# lead is equal to 50 yuan / ton of discount water. The trade market is also light. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead ordinary brands for 1907 contracts flat to 50 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, renewable enterprises still have a discount price in the market, but because of the low price of lead, it suppresses the profit space of refineries. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled refined lead was 150 to 100 yuan / ton of SMM1# lead discount.

In addition, last week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in the five places rose by more than 1200 tons to 35600 tons.

Lead price:

Lun lead closed for 5 consecutive yin, below the temporary storage of 40-day EMA support, the future test of 1850 US dollars / ton support; Shanghai lead still continues the interval concussion market, short-term attention to the box low support strength (15800 to 15900 yuan / ton); the Shanghai lead still continues the interval concussion market, the short-term attention box low support strength (15800 to 15900 yuan / ton);

SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat today.

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