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[SMM Cobalt Lithium spot Weekly] lack of market confidence accelerated decline in cobalt lithium prices (07010705)
Jul 5,2019 14:49CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 5 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

In terms of power batteries, the "Guowu" model has a far-reaching impact on the storage effect, a large number of short-term demand for new energy passenger cars has been replaced, and future demand is still squeezed; at the same time, the transition period of new energy subsidies has officially ended, and the industry has entered a cold period after "rush loading." at present, the operating rate of power battery enterprises is only less than 50%. Because the lithium iron phosphate battery market has experienced a round of reshuffle in 2018, the producer is concentrated, the corresponding upstream cathode material manufacturer is also obvious, and at present, lithium iron phosphate is mainly used in the power market, because the energy storage market is still in the early stage of development, the support for market demand is limited. The price game between the main engine factory and the battery factory is still continuing, and the current battery price continues to decline due to the poor market demand. at present, the price of the mainstream ternary single cell is 0.85 yuan / Wh, lithium iron phosphate cell price is 0.65 yuan / Wh. SMM expects the power battery start-up rate to remain depressed in July, mainly by destocking and upgrading the product structure.

In terms of consumer batteries, the market demand for electric bicycles and electric tools is relatively optimistic, providing some support for the production of ternary batteries, but due to the reduction in the production of power batteries, a large amount of production capacity has been transferred to the consumer market, and the market competition is fierce. It is expected that some of the excess low-end capacity will be gradually eliminated in the second half of the year.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: this week electrolytic cobalt prices accelerated, weekly foreign media quotations fell below this year's low, the market pessimism is even more pessimistic, electrolytic cobalt downstream buyers buy less and less, only a very small number of transactions. Cobalt hydroxide, due to the overall decline of cobalt products, although the smelter has cobalt hydroxide procurement demand, but the psychological price is very low, is still in a state of game with the buyer. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 22-233000 yuan / ton, which is 11000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. SMM cobalt hydroxide prices range from $8.3 to $8.50 per pound, down $0.1 per pound from last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: this week cobalt salt market performance is still weak, the market mentality is not good, sporadic sellers panic selling, aggravating the downstream bearish mentality. In terms of nickel salt, due to the reduction of demand for ternary precursors and the conversion of cobalt sulfate to nickel sulfate from some manufacturers, the pattern of supply and demand has worsened and the price has been under pressure. SMM cobalt sulfate price is 3.6-38000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 4.30-45000 yuan / ton, the average price is 2000 yuan / ton lower than last week. SMM nickel sulfate price is 22500-26000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 500 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Cobalt oxide: the price of cobalt tetra has dropped significantly, the consumer market has been hit by both the off-season and ternary markets, and demand is poor, making it difficult for suppliers to hold up prices. The current price of SMM cobalt oxide is 15.6-158000 yuan / ton, which is 9500 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Ternary precursor: ternary precursor price decline, demand contraction is significant, and there is no significant warming signal in the short term, manufacturers actively ship to inventory, trading prices gradually decline under the effect of falling raw material prices. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523) is 7-72000 yuan / ton, which is 7000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622 type) is 7.6-78000 yuan / ton, the average price is 7000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Lithium carbonate: lithium carbonate prices continued to fall this week. Battery-grade lithium carbonate demand has fallen sharply recently, in response to market changes, businesses have chosen to reduce prices. Compared with battery-grade lithium carbonate, the demand for industrial-grade lithium carbonate has also weakened, but the change is not as obvious as the demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate. Some battery-grade lithium carbonate manufacturers are also trying to make production adjustments to increase the share of industrial lithium carbonate sales to maintain production. It is understood that the quotations for battery-grade lithium carbonate in some small factories have reached 70, 000 yuan per ton, while a large industrial carbon production plant in Qinghai has also lowered its offer this week, a drop of 3000 yuan per ton. The price of SMM battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 7.1-74000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from last week. This week, the price of zero-grade lithium carbonate in SMM industry was 6.4-67000 yuan / ton, down 1500 yuan / ton from last week.

Lithium hydroxide: battery grade lithium hydroxide prices continue to fall this week. The transaction of domestic lithium hydroxide is rare, even if the manufacturer lowers the quotation also does not cause the bigger contribution to the sales volume. This week, the price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 8.1-83000 yuan / ton, the average price is 2000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Lithium cobalt acid: lithium cobalt acid demand is light, the operating rate of large plants is slightly lower, downstream cobalt lithium price decline is still strong expectations, wait-and-see mentality is heavy, market trading is flat, trading prices decline. The price of SMM4.35V lithium cobalt acid is 20-210000 yuan / ton, down 6000 yuan / ton from last week.

Ternary materials: the current ternary material overcapacity is obvious, the market structure tends to be concentrated, once the downstream battery customers appear large-scale production reduction, upstream raw material production plan if not adjusted in time, inventory will rise rapidly and passively in a short period of time. At the same time, taking into account the raw material nickel, cobalt and lithium prices are in the downward channel, Sanyuan material factory is not willing to keep more inventory, is still active shipment as the target, SMM predicted that battery terminal demand in July may not be expected, Sanyuan material factory has a strong willingness to reduce the operating rate. The price of SMM ternary material (523 type) is 12.5-133000 yuan / ton, the average price is 6000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622 type) is 14.1-148000 yuan / ton, the average price is 6000 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: lithium manganate is traded smoothly this week, and the price has not changed for the time being. Lithium manganate manufacturers said that in July, affected by the digital consumer industry off-season, orders are flat. For the procurement of upstream raw materials, it is clear that there has been an increase in the number of carbon sellers actively seeking to trade. This week SMM lithium manganate (volume type) price is 3-38000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. This week SMM lithium manganate (dynamic) price is 47-50, 000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium manganate: lithium iron phosphate is flat this week. Power lithium iron phosphate production enterprises said that due to the impact of production reduction in enterprises C and B, the order reduction in June was obvious. Orders are expected to be slightly better in July than in the previous month, but overall performance in the third quarter was disappointing. For the order performance of lithium iron phosphate, the overall performance is relatively stable. This week, the price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 4.6-49000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 0.1 million yuan / ton compared with last week.

Future forecast: SMM to maintain the previous point of view, the third quarter of the domestic consumer market is relatively stable, power market demand contraction, three yuan, iron and lithium performance significantly. Lithium salt prices may accelerate the decline, cobalt intermediate price reduction pressure increased.

SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team

Hong Lu 021 51666814

Ning Ziwei 021 51666780

Qin Jingjing 021 51666828

 

 

 

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