SMM News: according to the latest data, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 104000 in May, the lowest year-on-year growth rate of 1.8%. New energy vehicle sales continued to slow in May from a year earlier, following a month-on-month decline in sales growth in April. The era of rapid growth of new energy vehicles seems to be coming to an end, especially with the end of the subsidy transition period and the imminent withdrawal of subsidies, there are even voices in the industry that the new energy vehicle market is about to enter a period of adjustment.
Is the adjustment period coming early?
This year will be the year of life and death of new car-building forces, which is widely agreed in the industry, especially since the cold capital winter that began last year has made financing for new car-building forces no longer so easy. However, sales of new energy vehicles were not expected to slow in the middle of the year after confidence in the sales target of 1.6 million vehicles this year.
In the first five months of this year, new energy vehicles sold 464000 vehicles, a wide gap from the expected target of 1.6 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Although over the years, China's new energy vehicles have a low sales in the middle of the year and sales at the end of the year, but the first five months sales did not meet the expected target of 30%, the second half of the year to achieve the sales target of 1.15 million vehicles, the difficulty can be imagined. At present, there is no public discussion in the industry about the feasibility of achieving the target of 1.6 million vehicles, but judging from the current development trend, the mood of not optimistic has spread.
It is precisely because of the slowdown in sales growth, some people in the industry have said that the adjustment period of the new energy vehicle market may come ahead of time, which is not only for new car-building forces, but will affect all enterprises, especially the independent brands that have accumulated in the field of new energy vehicles and the relevant enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
Wang Liming, vice governor of the Qinghai Provincial people's Government, said that the current rapid development of lithium battery material technology and manufacturing technology in the global lithium power industry has brought new opportunities for battery enterprises and new energy vehicles. At the same time, it has become an important issue for the faster and better development of lithium power industry to efficiently improve the development level of lithium power industry and achieve great-leap-forward development. In the face of opportunities and challenges, the upstream and downstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain are facing adjustment.
The key factor in the adjustment period still seems to be subsidies, as Fu Yu Wu, honorary director of the China Society of Automotive Engineering, said: "this is a critical moment for the development of pure electric vehicles, and new energy vehicles are in a transitional stage from a financial subsidy-based introduction period to a market-oriented development." Zhang Yongwei, secretary-general and chief expert of the China Electric vehicle 100 Association, also said that pure electric vehicles are facing a vacuum period after the complete retreat of subsidies. Before that, China's new energy vehicle market has accumulated comparative advantages, and is dominated by its own brand, but it is undeniable that for a long time in the past, the new energy vehicle market was driven by subsidies, and even many enterprises suffered from "subsidy dependence." take the subsidy requirement as the criterion to develop models, guide vehicle prices with the amount of subsidies, and do not even sell cars. It is normal for the new energy vehicle industry, which is based on subsidies, to change after the withdrawal of subsidies. Now, the decline in sales and market adjustments are ahead of schedule, fundamentally because the transition period for a sharp retreat in subsidies ends by July.
Yang Jiulai, chairman of Guoxuan Battery Materials Co., Ltd., believes that at present, the whole new energy automobile industry is facing competition, and all enterprises in the industrial chain are inevitable. "there are more than 1,000 car factories in China, accounting for 2 to 3 of the global number, but there are many but not strong, and there is still a big gap between China and multinational car enterprises. In particular, the new energy vehicle industry, there are nearly 500 enterprises, vehicle enterprises more than 100. " So many enterprises, the state no longer gives protection, but advocates the integration under the market competition mechanism. "with the reshuffle of the industry, there will be a major change in the pattern in the next five years, and there will be a large number of acquisitions and bankruptcy." Yang continued to say so.
However, some analysts pointed out that it is difficult to judge whether the sharp decline in year-on-year growth in May alone was an accidental factor or the beginning of the slowdown, especially in June, which is the last month of the transition period. The factors that stimulate sales still exist.
Safety accident stimulates Market nerve
"I have seen several spontaneous combustion accidents of pure electric vehicles on the viaduct and I feel that new energy vehicles are still not safe enough." This is the consumer Mr. Xiao's preliminary impression of pure electric cars.
Although Sun Fengchun, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, stressed that the accident rate of spontaneous combustion of fuel vehicles is much higher than that of new energy vehicles, consumers' concerns about safety are inevitable because of the frequent fires in pure electric vehicles since last year. Since the beginning of this year, Wei, as the head of a new car-making force, has had three spontaneous combustion accidents in two months in a row, coupled with Tesla, a star enterprise that also exists as a "flash type." there has also been a spontaneous combustion accident.
"according to the plan, I should get a license for a new energy vehicle by the end of this year, but my family and I still have a lot of doubts about whether we will buy a pure electric car. We always feel that the vehicle is not safe enough." Consumer Ms. Li told reporters. This sentiment is reflected in the market, and a decline in sales of new energy vehicles seems inevitable.
Lu Zaigui, director of the Industrial Transformation and upgrading Department of the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, said that since 2018, new energy vehicles have frequently caught fire and spontaneous combustion accidents, the number of recalls of new energy vehicles is also increasing, and the new energy vehicle market is facing a great safety test.
Lu Zaigui stressed that the complete withdrawal of subsidies will bring great challenges to the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other multinational car enterprises of the new energy vehicle projects continue to land in China, will further stir up the domestic new energy vehicle market. In the second half of this year, a number of new energy vehicles under the joint venture brand will be listed on the market, and consumers will have a certain impact on their own brands when they face more choices. Zhang Yongwei said that in terms of cost, the cost reduction ability of new energy vehicles driven by technological progress is obviously lower than the speed of subsidy, and new energy vehicles do not yet have a cost advantage compared with traditional fuel vehicles. There is also a great price disadvantage, which will become a factor in the fluctuation of new energy vehicle sales.
Weakening of the advantages of New Energy vehicles
At the same time that the sharp retreat of new energy vehicle subsidies leads to a rise in prices, energy-efficient vehicles begin to compete with new energy vehicles for the market. With the development of energy-saving technology, 48V, hybrid and even natural gas vehicles and methanol vehicles are being accepted by more and more consumers. Under the influence of many factors, such as low price, more convenient use, lower use cost and so on, consumers have more choices. Even if new energy vehicles have license advantages in limited cities, they are gradually being re-examined by rational consumers.
In the latest low-carbon action survey released by the China Automotive Technology Research Center, the carbon emission value of Camry's unit mileage is only 187gCO2e / km, which is lower than 42% of the same grade of pure electric vehicles. More and more surveys show that the energy saving of pure electric vehicles is not prominent in the same class of models. After the loss of energy-saving attribute, whether management departments or consumers, the reduction of enthusiasm for pure electric vehicles will inevitably lead to a slowdown in the growth of market sales, and then affect the development trend of the whole new energy vehicle industry.
More importantly, although the anti-combustion timetable has recently been widely discussed by the community, but both inside and outside the industry have come to a more rational conclusion-the coordinated development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. "We must attach importance to the effect of energy saving and emission reduction of energy-saving vehicles, and vigorously improve energy-saving technology and promote the development of energy-saving vehicles for a long time to come." "We should pursue total low carbon, optimize fleet structure, optimize vehicle use, and promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the automobile industry, rather than blindly developing new energy vehicles," Fu said. "
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