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SMM Morning Comments (Jul 5)
Jul 5,2019 09:53CST
price review forecast
SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Jul 5 (SMM) – 

Copper: A lower greenback amid worries about US growth slowdown capped declines in copper prices overnight. Prices will continue to receive limited support from fundamentals as the overall pattern of weak fundamentals remains unchanged. The most-traded SHFE August contract has lost support from all moving averages, with the KDJ indicators expanding downwards. It is expected to extend a weak performance at 46,200-46,600 yuan/mt today, with three-month LME copper at $5,900-5,940/mt. Sufficient supplies of spot materials will keep premiums from exceeding 140 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: Both three-month LME aluminium and the most-traded SHFE August contract recovered losses since last Friday as lower inventories and premiums in spot offers depressed confidence in shorts. LME aluminum closed 1.15% higher at $1,809.5/mt, with its SHFE counterpart rising 0.87% to end at 13,895 yuan/mt. However, fundamentals will limit any upward room in prices in the short term. Today, the contact is likely to trade at 13,700-13,900 yuan/mt, with LME aluminium at $1,750-1,850/mt. 

Zinc: An eased backwardation structure and the prospect of greater supplies grew bearish sentiment in the market, dragging three-month LME zinc to a low of $2,415/mt. It slipped 0.86% overnight to close at $2,427/mt. Current low inventories will give some support and keep prices at $2,400-2,450/mt today. The most-active SHFE September contract finished the night session 0.9% lower at 19,340 yuan/mt, after slid to a low of 19,275 yuan/mt, as shorts added their positions on concerns about the low season. Limited upward momentum will keep the contract at 19,150-19,650 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: As the US dollar weakened, three-month LME nickel held firm above the 60-day moving average, and bounced from a low of $12,255/mt to above the daily moving average, closing higher at $12,380/mt. With resistance from the five- and 10- day moving averages, it is likely to trade between $12,300-12,600/mt today. The most-liquid SHFE August contract also rallied after dipped to a low of 97,550 yuan/mt, ending higher at 98,420 yuan/mt. Trading range is seen at 98,000-99,000 yuan/mt today. 

Lead: Three-month LME lead pared increases from earlier trades overnight as it slid from a high of $1,895/mt, ending up 0.13% at $1,882/mt. The most-active SHFE August contract extended its rangebound trend, closing flat at 16,050 yuan/mt after climbed to a high of 16,195 yuan/mt. Investors should remain cautious while the price volatility went lower. 

Tin: Three-month LME tin received support from rising longs and climbed swiftly to a high of $18,475/mt before it closed 1.15% higher at $18,410/mt, while the most-liquid SHFE September contract continued to see limited upward momentum, ending lower at 133,870 yuan/mt. Support below is likely at 132,000 yuan/mt today, with LME tin facing resistance from the 10-day moving average, or the $18,600/mt level. 

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