[SMM Analysis] Automobile plant shutdown but not high temperature fake recycled aluminum industry is a little "cool" this summer.

This week, SAIC Volkswagen suppliers revealed that SAIC Volkswagen Anting three plants will be shut down. The specific arrangement is that, from July 1, the three factories will stop production together in the first week. Starting from the second week of July 1, the three factories have alternately resumed production. The impact time is expected to be about two weeks, while the one-day impact capacity will reach 2500 vehicles.

And according to people familiar with the matter, the shutdown is not a traditional high-temperature holiday, but a simple shutdown, that is, high-temperature leave may occur again between July and August.

In addition to SAIC, Great Wall Motor has a similar recuperation, completing the certification and trial production of Guofu-related moulds between June 15 and July 15. And explicitly require the supplier not to prepare the library.

Combined with the CAAC automobile production and marketing data and the latest implementation of the sixth of the country, the five cars in the country went to the warehouse to overdraw part of the third quarter consumption on a large scale for two months in a row. In addition, the third quarter belongs to the off-season of automobile seasonal consumption. It is not difficult to understand the problem of the suspension of production at the automobile factory or the unhurried conversion of the six cars in the country. From this point of view, the traditional off-season July-August car consumption is difficult to improve, only wait for six cars to start normal production, that is, as early as the end of August, car consumption can improve.

So for the terminal consumption of automotive sector-based recycled aluminum industry, this summer is a little "cool." Although the cost of aluminum price is weak, but the supply of waste aluminum is reduced, the cost decline is limited, resulting in profits continue to be nibbled away. Demand has entered a cold winter, competition among peers is cruel, the price of finished products has been falling, and the price of recycled aluminum has only fallen in recent months. In addition, as a result of the appreciation of the RMB, more and more imports have flowed into China, and this summer has had the feeling of a cold winter.

Of course, there is no need to be too pessimistic, after August when the six cars into normal production, 5G replacement, at least demand is still significantly better than now.

(Shanghai Nonferrous net is easy to shine)