[SMM analysis] the margin of arrival of aluminum ingots in East China increases, and aluminum ingots rise or bear pressure at the stage.

Published: Jul 4, 2019 14:40

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SMM7, March 3: excluding the phenomenon of high water rise in mid-and late March due to value-added tax factors, aluminum ingot water rose again in May and June experienced a relatively high, in recent days aluminum ingot water decline to near Pingshui, the future aluminum ingot water will evolve? The author will analyze from the point of view of the arrival of aluminum ingots.

There is a certain negative correlation between the arrival of aluminum ingots and the rise of aluminum ingots.

Data source: SMM (18-29 March aluminum ingot water has been smoothed)

According to the arrival data of aluminum ingots in East China, SMM calculates the weekly arrival index of aluminum ingots, which fits with the historical spot water rise, and finds that there is a certain degree of negative correlation between them, and the change of aluminum ingot arrival index is about 2 weeks ahead of that of aluminum ingots (the negative correlation between the arrival index of aluminum ingots and the spot tipping water of aluminum ingots with a lag of 2 weeks is the most significant). From the picture, it is not difficult to find that the arrival of aluminum ingots in East China began to shock down in early April, while the rising water shock of aluminum ingots rose in the same period.

Well, on the other hand, the current aluminum ingot arrival index can be found that since early June, the arrival of aluminum ingots has picked up significantly, almost returning to the level of March. The corresponding aluminum ingot water has declined in recent days, and it may even continue to weaken in July.

In addition, the author observed that there was a peak of arrival of aluminum plate belt in May, and the arrival intensity once caught up with that of aluminum ingots. This phenomenon explains the reduction of roll-casting coil processing fees reflected by several plate and strip enterprises in June: generally, the processing fees of cast-rolling coils remain unchanged all the year round, but according to SMM research, enterprises in Jiangsu Province have responded to a 10% decline in the price of roll-casting coil delivery in June. In view of the fact that the arrival of aluminum strip quickly returned to the normal level, the author expects that the impact of the arrival of the goods on the price of roll-casting coil is relatively short.

Peak of arrival of aluminum plate and strip in May

Source: SMM

(SMM Shanghai Nonferrous net Liang Xuan 021 5166 6922)

Price forecast

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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