[minutes of internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum] basic metal Shanghai-London aluminum performance hit bottom and rebounded

7.4 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Market surface: yesterday, the basic metals rose more and less, Lun aluminum ended four consecutive shade, closing at $1789 / ton, up $9.50 / ton, up 0.53%; Shanghai aluminum main even 1908 contract also bottomed out in night trading, closing at 13740 yuan / ton, mainly short position reduction. Macro: (1) the public value of the US trade account for May (US $100 million) was-555, the expected value was-520, and the previous value was-508, jumping to a nearly five-month high; (2) the public value of PMI for China's financial and new services industry in June was 52, the previous value was 52.7, and the expected value was 52.6, slightly less than expected; (3) COMEX8 monthly gold futures closed up 0.9% at $1420.90 / ounce, the highest close since May 2013.

Fundamentals: internationally, the global alumina production in May was 10.2 million tons, up 0.1 percent from the previous month, down 0.7 percent from the same period last year. From January to May, the global alumina production totaled about 50.6 million tons, an increase of about 1.2 percent over the same period last year. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in Japan is only US $1460 per ton, while the price in other Asian countries is still relatively high, with quotations generally above US $1500 per ton. On the domestic side, the cost-end SMM alumina offer is 2738 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than the previous day. Spot: on Wednesday, the first trading range of Shanghai Wuxi spot transaction price was between 13610 and 13620 yuan / ton, between 13650 and 13670 yuan / ton in the second trading range, and the spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi began to focus on 13650 to 13670 yuan / ton. The price rose slightly from the previous day. The price before noon in Hangzhou was between 13650 and 13670 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi began to focus on 13650 to 13670 yuan / ton, and the price was slightly higher than the previous day. The price before noon in Hangzhou was between 13650 and 13670 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi began to focus on 13650 to 13670 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, the market rose, but the Hangzhou quotation was chaotic and the transaction was diluted. When the aluminum price is low in the morning, the willingness of traders to receive goods is greatly increased, and there are many recipients in the market, but there are fewer sources of goods in circulation in the market, and the holders cherish to sell slightly. After 10: 30, with the announcement of the online price, the market has also risen sharply, and the aluminum price has risen by nearly 30 yuan / ton in the morning price level. At this time, the shippers obviously increased, but due to the larger increase in aluminum prices, middlemen and traders hesitated to receive the goods, and the transactions between the two sides were not much. Due to the difficulty of indirect shipment by traders, the actual shipment is not much, at the same time, the downstream is still purchasing on demand, it can be seen that the supply and demand is weak, the overall transaction in East China is poor.

Summary: we maintain the previous point of view unchanged, the speed of domestic electrolytic aluminum storage slowed down, alumina prices have not yet reached the end, the market is worried that July-August consumption off-season may be exhausted, so aluminum prices weakened unilaterally under fundamental pressure, but extrapolated to the September consumption season brought about by the accelerated go to the warehouse market, you can try in the vicinity of 13500-13800 yuan / ton waiting for a single layout.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)