[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

News from SMM7 on April 4,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: earlier, the US released a lower-than-expected June ADP jobs report, which put pressure on the US dollar. Gold prices rallied as the stock market rally made interest-free gold less attractive, while global economic growth concerns and dovish monetary policy prospects supported gold prices. Oil prices rebounded sharply, with us oil up more than 2 per cent as encouraging signs of demand helped offset a smaller-than-expected decline in crude oil stocks as us gasoline stocks fell in a row. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

Shanghai: the center of gravity of zinc futures operation has shifted upward, and market shipments have increased, but the overall circulation has been tightened to a certain extent, and the market quotation has been slightly raised to about 10 yuan / ton of flat water-rising water, or the net average price has been given priority to, all of them have transaction performance, but the market receiving force has weakened compared with yesterday, and the downstream consumption has warmed up as a wait-and-see mood, entering the market mainly with inquiry, purchasing is more cautious, and the quotation for the second trading period has been basically stable. However, the market to shipment-based transactions have become lighter, the overall transaction is slightly less than yesterday. Guangdong: the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is abundant. In the morning, the market was more confused about the quotation, and the holder concentrated on the average price of-10 yuan / ton, and the atmosphere of market trading was relatively dull. After entering the second trading period, the market quotation focused on the rising water of about 170 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. However, after a small drop in the surface of the market, the rising water was adjusted upward, and the willingness to pick up the goods downstream was not good. The trading situation in Guangdong today is weaker than that of yesterday. Tianjin: the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. The carrier actively shipped the goods, and the early quotation focused on the 07 contract flat water to rising water 160 yuan / ton, but the willingness to pick up the goods downstream became weak, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. Follow-up holders cut water to 07 contract flat water to rising water 100 yuan / ton, after the price adjustment, the market transaction has not been significantly boosted. Today's market transactions are more concentrated in the supply of low-priced brands, the overall transaction situation is lighter than yesterday. Zinc price: the average of zinc under pressure is negative, although the decline of inventory provides some support for zinc, but at the same time, the structure of back is weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is alleviated, the upper action can be slightly insufficient; Shanghai zinc pressure above the 5, 10-day moving average, the trend concussion, multi-empty game slightly glued, on the one hand, consumption off-season approaching, demand weaker expectations are stronger, at the same time, the northern refinery centralized maintenance is imminent, and inventory has not been significantly accumulated, give Shanghai zinc support below. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2430-2480 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or operation in the vicinity of 19500-20000 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic fall 30