SMM News: in order to promote the sustainable development of China's new energy vehicle industry, the relevant departments are about to come out of Taiwan's new top-level design.
Xin Guobin, vice minister of industry and information technology, said at the 2019 World New Energy vehicle Conference held in Boao on July 2 that in order to further clarify the development path and policy support of new energy vehicles, gather industry consensus, and strengthen development confidence, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is leading the preparation of the New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035).
With regard to the overall idea of planning, Xin Guobin pointed out that it is necessary to stimulate the driving force and vitality of independent innovation in enterprises under the guidance of reducing the intensity of resource consumption and improving the ecological environment, so as to form a good cycle of technological innovation and application of new energy vehicles and social operation of environmental resources. At the same time, we should properly handle macro and micro, current and long-term, domestic and international relations, further integrate industrial layout, improve industrial design, deepen industrial cooperation, and come up with a sustainable train of thought for the development of new energy automobile industry.
At present, China's new energy vehicle industry is entering a new period of development. After ten years of rapid development, China has become the largest country in the production and marketing of new energy vehicles in the world. The phased target of 2 million sales and 5 million in 2020 is expected to be achieved.
However, due to the sharp retreat of new energy vehicle subsidies to the end of 2020, the industry is facing a new test when new energy vehicles change from policy-driven to market-driven. "the 2020-oriented industrial planning has played an important role in the development of the industry. Facing 2035, we should establish a new industrial development plan, solve the major problems facing the industry, and promote the continuous innovation of China's new energy automobile industry. " Wan Gang, vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said.
Facing the Post-subsidy era
Starting from the "ten cities and a thousand vehicles" plan in 2009, with the strong promotion and support of the government, China's new energy vehicle industry has made a great breakthrough in the past ten years. Through the rapid growth of ten years, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China has grown from less than 10, 000 in 2009 to 1.256 million in 2018, becoming the largest new energy vehicle market in the world.
Among them, the industrial planning for 2020 has played an important role in the development of the industry. In June 2012, the State Council issued the Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020), which proposes pure electric drive as the main strategic orientation for the development of new energy vehicles and the transformation of the automobile industry. focus on promoting the industrialization of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The specific goal is that by 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million, and the cumulative production and sales volume will exceed 5 million, and the fuel cell vehicle and vehicle hydrogen energy industry will develop in step with the international development.
With the support of financial subsidies, the technology of new energy vehicles in China is improving rapidly, the products are becoming more and more mature, and the market of new energy vehicles is also growing rapidly. Judging from the current speed of development, the above goals are expected to be achieved as scheduled.
However, with the sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, China's new energy vehicle market has also taken a break from high growth. In May, China sold 104400 new energy vehicles, a growth rate of just 1.8 per cent, showing clear signs of slowing.
"the slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicles in May was mainly affected by factors such as the high base in May last year and the price reduction and promotion of national five fuel vehicles, and the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles also had a certain impact, but most car companies did not raise prices significantly in May. At present, the impact of subsidy retreat is not so great." On July 2, Xu Haidong, assistant secretary general of the China Automobile Industry Association, said in an interview with the think tank.
He told the think-tank that it was highly likely to meet the target of selling more than 1.6 million new energy vehicles this year, and that the CAAC's forecast of 30 per cent growth this year was not high and had fully taken into account the impact of the subsidy retreat.
In the industry, even after breaking away from the subsidy policy, China's development of new energy vehicles is still the general trend. In order to undertake the promotion and development of new energy vehicles after subsidy, and stimulate the ability of enterprises to innovate independently, the "parallel Management method for average fuel consumption of passenger vehicle Enterprises and New Energy vehicle points" ("double integral" policy) formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions will play an important role. From cash subsidies for new energy models to higher regulatory requirements for the production of new energy vehicles by car companies.
The "double integral" policy implements the parallel management of the fuel consumption points and the new energy points of the enterprises, and carries on the compulsory examination to the domestic automobile enterprises. The original purpose of the "double points" policy is to improve vehicle energy efficiency, reduce fuel consumption and promote the development of new energy vehicles. To put it simply, through policy constraints, in order to meet the requirements of the "double points" policy, traditional car companies need to increase the production capacity of new energy vehicles, otherwise they will be punished by the relevant departments.
On July 2, according to the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of Chinese passenger car enterprises in 2018, according to the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 75 of the 141 passenger car enterprises in China in 2018 did not meet the average fuel consumption standards.
Xin Guobin said: through the study of the current enterprise policy, the analysis of the reduction of fuel consumption, the situation of new energy, and economic and technological costs in the process of large-scale investigation of enterprises and the formulation of fuel consumption standards in the fifth stage, the measures of the double points policy for 2021 to 2023 have been preliminarily formulated and will be publicly solicited in the near future.
Compatible multi-technology route development
In the "Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", aiming at the development route of new energy vehicles, the focus is to promote the industrialization of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. However, in introducing the general idea of the "New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)," Xin Guobin mentioned that it is necessary to be compatible with the development of a variety of technical routes.
In fact, as early as the beginning of this century, China has put forward the "three vertical and three horizontal" new energy vehicle development strategy. "three vertical" refers to hybrid electric vehicle, pure electric vehicle, fuel cell vehicle; "three horizontal" refers to multi-energy powertrain control system, motor and its control system and battery and its management system.
However, in the past decade, pure electric vehicles are the mainstream of new energy passenger vehicles in China, whether technical level or market scale, are growing most rapidly. According to the data, by the end of 2018, the number of new energy vehicles in China was 2.9 million, of which 75 per cent were passenger cars, of which 76.5 per cent were pure electric vehicles and 23.5 per cent were plug-in hybrid cars.
"Electric travel is more like a marathon than a sprint." Fu Lexi, director of research and development at BMW Group, said that in the period of transformation from the automobile industry to electrification, the development of electric vehicles needs to be arranged in advance, with multiple tentacles, and the market will choose the technical route.
With the breakthrough of technology and the development of hydrogen energy, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are receiving more attention and recognition. "for long-distance public transport, inter-city logistics, long-distance logistics, fuel vehicles have the characteristics of zero emissions and long mileage, it is the best choice to meet the best needs of the market." Wan Gang said.
The fuel industry should develop harmoniously and should not become a "seesaw". While speeding up the development of the fuel cell industry, it is necessary to speed up the development of hydrogenation stations and fuel cells and build a sustainable competitive advantage of the system. At present, there are more than 1500 fuel cell vehicles in China, and eight areas with hydrogen energy advantages have carried out demonstration commercial operation, with 15 hydrogenation stations and more than 20 under construction. In terms of scale, it is still in the initial stage of development.
There are many different voices in the industry for the development of hydrogen-fueled vehicles.
"in the medium to long term, fuel cells or synthetic fuels will become more important, and they are particularly suitable for electric vehicles with long mileage." Volkswagen group CEO Dis said.
However, Deiss also believes that at present, neither fuel cells nor synthetic fuel can be obtained at a reasonable price or on an industrial scale. In addition, an additional new infrastructure needs to be built for fuel cells. Only when hydrogen becomes a surplus renewable energy will the technology become a real substitute.
Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, pointed out that due to many technical problems in the matching of multi-technical routes, enterprises should not only plan specific production capacity for different technical routes, but also develop traditional fuel vehicles at the same time. Reserves of pure electric, hybrid, hydrogen fuel and other technologies are inevitably overwhelmed, and costs and inputs and outputs are facing challenges.
"New energy is certainly the general direction, the future will allow a variety of routes to develop, rather than pure electric one. At present, it seems that pure electric can be developed, hydrogen energy can be developed, and the energy saving of traditional fuel vehicles can also be developed. We can develop on their own routes, and finally let the market and consumers make a choice. " Xu Haidong told the think tank.