7.3 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday, Lun Aluminum closed at US $1779.5 / ton, down 12 US dollars / ton, down 0.67%, and the overnight Shanghai Aluminium 1908 contract closed at 13625 yuan / ton, continuing to refresh its low since mid-March this year. Macro: (1) Premier Li Keqiang said at the Summer Davos Forum that China will unswervingly promote all-round opening up to the outside world and is committed to developing a higher level of open economy; (2) the Ministry of Commerce said that moving in and out of the industrial chain is a normal phenomenon under the market economy, and enterprises will take the initiative to go out and distribute the world according to their own development needs, or move to places with lower comprehensive costs. A small number of enterprises have moved out under the influence of Sino-US economic and trade frictions, but on a small scale, and cannot directly link the outward relocation of industries to this. There are many factors.
Fundamentals: overseas, the Alcoa workers strike is over, and the company plans to restart its smelter in Canada on July 26th, with an annual capacity of 413000 tons and increased pressure on overseas supply and positive positions at home and abroad. On the domestic side, on the cost side, the price of SMM alumina continued to fall from the previous day to 2758 yuan / ton; on the supply side, the price of Guangdong aluminum rod rose yesterday, mainly due to the obvious decline in aluminum prices, and the actual transaction in the market was light. Spot: on Monday, the spot price in Shanghai is between 13630 and 13650 yuan / ton, and the price is between 20 yuan / ton and 13690 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan lower than yesterday's price. Wuxi spot price is between 13640 and 13660 yuan / ton, and Hangzhou price is between 13670 and 13690 yuan / ton. Yesterday's spot aluminum price dropped more than 100 yesterday, the holder's willingness to ship converged, cherish the price, low price middleman's willingness to receive goods significantly increased, Monday market performance more and less, the actual transaction slightly stalemate. Downstream manufacturers are still purchasing on demand, not sensitive to the sharp fall in prices, or suggesting that downstream consumption is indeed weak, the overall transaction in East China is slightly worse than yesterday.
Summary: the speed of domestic electrolytic aluminum storage slows down, alumina prices are not yet to the end, the market is worried that July-August consumption off-season may be exhausted, short-term aluminum prices under fundamental pressure unilateral weakness, extrapolated to the September consumption season brought about by the accelerated storage market, you can try to wait around 13500 yuan / ton layout.
(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)