[July 3 SMM lead internal morning meeting record]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

The RBA is understood to have cut its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 1.00 per cent for the second month in a row, and the RBA said it would adjust its policies if necessary to support economic growth and inflation.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below 1.972%, its lowest level since 2016.

The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said that the growth rate of consumption in the first half of the year is expected to reach 8.2 percent, which is still in the middle and high speed range. At present, China's consumer fundamentals are "very solid," consumer prices are also stable, and price increases are moderate. In the future, the Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policy tracking and assessment and study measures to further promote consumption.

At the opening ceremony of the annual meeting of new leaders of the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2019, the Premier of the State Council said in his opening speech that in order to solve the problem of financing difficulties and expensive financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, measures should be taken to reduce the real interest rates of small and medium-sized enterprises, improve the financing situation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and support the private economy.

Fundamentals:

The Shanghai period lead continues to be strong, the holder ships actively, generally reduces the rising water, among them, the Shanghai market gold sand, the southern lead to the 1907 contract water 30 50 yuan / ton quotation, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jijin, Wanyang, copper crown lead to the 1907 contract water 0 to 30 yuan / ton quotation, among them sends the white goods to 16145 16155 contract discount 10 to 20 yuan / ton quotation, and the original lead refinery bulk order mainstream quotation to the SMM1# lead average price 50 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, lead refineries are still careful to recover the original lead as needed, and the price of reduced lead is limited. The mainstream quotation for regenerated refined lead leaves the factory with an average price of 200,150 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead; however, the fear of high in the lower reaches is stronger, and more of them turn to wait and see, and the inquiry price is obviously less than that of yesterday, and the transaction in the bulk market is dismal.

Lead price:

Lun lead weakens one after another, the upward trend may be affected to a certain extent, 1900 US dollars / ton will eventually form a greater pressure, Shanghai lead is still fluctuating around the range of 16000 to 16300 yuan / ton, the future market needs to cooperate with the fundamental reversal to choose one-sided direction.

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to fall by 75 to 125 yuan per ton today.