SMM News: information Analysis:
(1) Macro sentiment once again turned cautious, yesterday the performance of the non-ferrous plate was weak, zinc prices also fell back. Yesterday, zinc positions in Shanghai fell by nearly 4, 000 hands to 619000, indicating that funds are still on the cautious side. In addition, the near strong and far weak pattern of Shanghai zinc futures appears again.
(2) LME zinc stocks fell 1625 tons to 93500 tons yesterday, while LME zinc write-off warehouse receipts were 19700 tons, accounting for 21.07 per cent of inventories. Yesterday's zinc warehouse receipt stocks continued to increase by 601t to 40280 tonnes.
(4) on July 1, the LME zinc liter discount (0-3) was US $67 / ton, and the monthly rising water of LME zinc spot continued to fall.
(5) the spot quotation of domestic zinc was sharply reduced yesterday. Shanghai 0 # ordinary brand to Shanghai zinc 07 contract discount 10 yuan / ton-flat water, the market is willing to receive goods on the low, the transaction increased slightly; Tianjin to Shanghai market rising water narrowed to 80 yuan / ton, consumption weakened again, transaction difference; Guangdong to Shanghai market discount slightly expanded to 40 yuan / ton, the transaction is mainly trading, trading slightly increased.
Logic: the certainty of the recovery of zinc supply in the medium term is strong, the current trend of seasonal weakness of consumption has been very prominent, and the upward trend of domestic zinc ingot inventory has not changed. The monthly rising water of LME zinc spot continues to fall, the BACK structure is further loosened, and the late delivery of LME zinc is still expected. As a result, the expected continuation of the weak fundamentals of zinc. Macroscopically, the outlook for Sino-US trade is still uncertain, the dollar index has risen again, and macro sentiment has shifted rapidly. Overall, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak downward trend in the medium term.
Operation advice: empty single holding; buy copper and sell zinc.
Risk factors: the RMB fluctuates sharply, the macro mood changes obviously. (source: Citic Futures)