[July 2 SMM lead internal morning meeting record]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the United States has proposed to increase tariffs on $4 billion worth of EU goods, and the United States has added EU dairy products and certain metals to the proposed tariff list.

Overnight, the dollar index rebounded sharply, up 0.65%;

OPEC representatives said that OPEC agreed to extend the production reduction agreement for nine months, Russian Energy Minister Novak said that all oil ministers agreed to OPEC + extension of production reduction agreement for nine months, all existing OPEC + production reduction quotas continue to be implemented, or will continue to promote the trend of crude oil, thereby driving commodities;

According to the data, in June 2019, China's heavy truck market sold about 100000 vehicles of various types, down 8 percent from May this year and 11 percent from 112100 vehicles in the same period last year.

The PMI of China's Caixin manufacturing industry in June was 49.4, the forecast was 50.1, the previous value was 50.2, which was below the line of prosperity and decline for the first time in four months, indicating that the prosperity of China's manufacturing industry declined in June. The further development of counter-cyclical policy is very necessary, and new infrastructure, high-tech manufacturing and consumption may become the main starting points of the policy.

Fundamentals:

By the positive macro news, the initial lead shock upward, the holder actively quoted the goods, but the downstream delivery is cautious, after some of the holders turned down the quotation to rise to near Pingshui, the bulk order market only then slightly traded, among them, Shanghai Sands, Southern lead to 1907 contract liter water 50 60 yuan / ton quotation, imported Harbin lead to 1907 contract discount 50 yuan / ton quotation, the Shanghai market Sands, the southern lead to the 1907 contract liter water 50 60 yuan / ton quotation, the import Harbin lead to the 1907 contract discount 50 yuan / ton quotation, Jijin, Wanyang, Tongguan and Shuangyan lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas quote 0 to 50 yuan per ton of water for 1907 contracts, of which the discount of 16080 to 16090 contracts is quoted at 10 to 20 yuan per ton, while the mainstream quotation for the bulk order of the original lead refinery is 50 to 80 yuan per ton for SMM1# lead. In terms of recycled lead, the market supply of reduced lead is limited, but due to the low consumption downstream, the procurement is also more cautious. The mainstream quotation of recycled lead is 200,150 yuan / ton of SMM1# lead average price. Some downstream storage enterprises are mainly purchasing with rigid demand, and the market transaction has not been improved.

Lead price:

Lead overnight below the 20-day moving average has a strong support, short-term due to the trend of lead in the short term, there are still technical funds to enter the market; Shanghai lead is still not out of this range, mainly because the fundamentals are weak, the future market still maintains this view, but the whole year short lead cycle or near the end, need to be careful of the future lead price shock rebound;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to be flat to 25 yuan per ton today.