SMM News: the euro against the dollar due to short in the past three trading days and long after the tug-of-war, began to fight back control. The selling pressure is likely to be mainly due to a rise in US Treasury yields after easing fears of a trade war, pushing the dollar stronger across the board. Before the release of PMI data for the euro zone and the United States, the suspense of senior positions in the European Union was also important to the euro. EURUSD remains under pressure near the midpoint of 1.13 because of rising Treasury yields and a lack of consensus on senior positions in the EU.
Pay attention to the important data on Employment in the European Union-eurozone PMI
The failure of EU leaders to agree on candidates for the top posts in the EU, including the successor to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, has added to the pressure on the euro. EU Summit President Tusk has decided that the summit will resume at breakfast later on Monday local time. Meanwhile, French President Francois Macron said on Sunday that the new president of the European Central Bank could make a decision later this week.
At the same time, the focus remains on the final value of the eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), due to be released later today, to gain new insights into the health of the eurozone economy, especially after preview data showed a slight improvement in manufacturing. In addition, the (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing managers Index (PMI) of the US Institute for supply Management will be closely watched in search of new dollar transactions.
Eurozone manufacturing output revised down to 47.7, EURUSD at risk of widening bearish correction due to weak growth data
On Monday, the Markit will release the final version of June's manufacturing PMI, including the euro zone's June PMI estimates, a sigh of relief for the euro, as the indicators show that, despite the continued economic slowdown, at least the situation has not taken a turn for the worse. As the official report said, the pace of economic growth in the eurozone remained weak in June, but rose slightly for the second month in a row to a seven-month high. Services have fuelled economic growth and helped offset the continued downturn in manufacturing.
Germany's manufacturing index (1815.167, 68.43, 3.92%) is expected to be 45.4 in May and 44.3 in May, a four-month high, while the services index is expected to be 55.6, a two-month high. The composite index was calculated at 52.6, the same as the previous month.
For the EU as a whole, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is still contracting, up slightly from the previous month to 47.8, up from 47.7 last month. The rebound in services output was slightly better, with the index rising to 53.4 from a seven-month high of 52.9. The comprehensive PMI of the European Union is 52.1.
This is a fairly modest assessment, but it could be quite bad for the euro, as it will reignite concerns about the deepening of the EU economic downturn. This negative impact is likely to be partially offset by the weakness of the dollar, which keeps the euro afloat.
At the same time, the ECB has announced a series of measures to deal with the slowdown, although market participants do not believe further stimulus measures will change the macroeconomic landscape.
These figures are likely to be ignored given several more relevant events that will take place over the weekend.
The European Parliament will be held on July 2, and the president of the European Central Bank may be Weidmann.
The European Parliament will meet on July 2 and all key EU posts will be changed hands, and there are said to be tense differences over successors to key roles. With Mr Draghi's term ending in October, the next president of the ECB will be elected at the European Parliament this week. Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, is likely to succeed him because he is clearly opposed to Draghi's innovation in monetary policy. A sudden shift in monetary policy is usually bad news for currencies. If anyone in the European Parliament stands out on July 2nd, the euro is expected to have bad news.
The nomination of the president of the European Commission requires the support of at least 21 of the 28 EU leaders, as well as the support of the majority of the European Parliament
The president of the European Commission is by far the most influential role to be identified. The post of president of the European Commission has been held since 2014 by Jean-Claude, former prime minister of Luxembourg. Juncker served. The European Commission is responsible for drafting EU laws, monitoring national budgets, implementing EU treaties and negotiating international trade agreements.
"I am not without joy to note that it is not easy to find someone to replace me," Juncker told reporters at a news conference earlier Friday. " The choice of top posts in the EU must take into account last month's European elections and strike an acceptable balance between large and small countries, gender and geographical location. The European Parliament elections in May created more political divisions, including a surge in the number of Greens and Liberal MPs, leaving Europe's leaders slow to give birth.
The European Parliament says the president should come from the party with the largest number of seats-meaning that Manfried Weber, a German from the European people's Party (EPP), has the support of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. And French President Mark favors Michelle? Barnier, who has been in charge of Brexit negotiations, holds the post. In addition to Weber and Barnier, strong opponents are Frans Timmermans, a veteran member of the European Union (a Dutchman from centre-left socialism) and Margaret Westerg, the Danish European Commissioner (a liberal).
Huitong decided that although Weber's chances of winning the election are not high, the president of the European Parliament, the current top EU post, is not expected to fall into the hands of populist parties, as all three candidates are centrist and one is liberal.
EURUSD was down 0.32% against the dollar at 1.1324 as of July 1, Beijing time, according to Yi Huitong software. From a downward point of view, the next support level is 1.1321 points (July 1 low), followed by 1.1260 points (100-day moving average), and finally 1.1181 points (June 18 low). From an upward point of view, after breaking through 1.1412 (June 25 high), the resistance level will rise to 1.1419 (February 28 high), and have a chance to break through 1.1448 (March 20 high).
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