[minutes of internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum] what is the follow-up trend of macro marginal warming of aluminum prices?

7.1 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: on Friday, Lun Aluminum fell back after rising US $1812.5 / ton, closing at US $1794 / ton, down US $2.50 / ton, down 0.14%. On Friday night, Shanghai Aluminium main Company 1908 contract concussion downward, mainly to long position reduction, closed down 13795 yuan / ton, down 0.25%. Macro: (1) the G20 summit was held in Osaka, Japan on the 29th local time. Chinese and US leaders met and decided to restart trade negotiations. US President Trump said that the two sides would continue trade negotiations. The US side does not impose tariffs on the US $3500 worth of Chinese products previously mentioned. (2) A new round of 300 billion yuan fee reduction was officially implemented today, further reducing the burden on enterprises and the masses; (3) the 2019 Summer Davos Forum was held in Dalian from 1 to 3 July; (4) China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.4 in June, which was stable compared with the previous month.

Fundamentals: (1) at the cost end, alumina prices continue to decline, and the shipping enthusiasm of the northern region is higher than that of the southwest region. The quotation in Henan is as low as 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction in Shanxi has been as low as 2750 yuan / ton. In July, the price of aluminum fluoride went up the channel, rising to more than 10000 yuan / ton, and the high probability of fluorite price also remained strong. (2) on the demand side, SMM completed the monthly PMI survey of the aluminum processing industry on Friday, and the comprehensive PMI42.9%, fell 8.1% from the previous month, and all kinds of products fell in varying degrees. Spot: last Friday morning, the spot transaction price in the Wuxi market in Shanghai was between 1378 and 13790 yuan / ton. With the announcement of the online price, the market evaluation was lower than the psychological price, and the actual spot price began to rise slightly, concentrated between 13800 and 13810 yuan / ton, focusing on 10 yuan / ton to flat water in the current month. Friday price is lower, the willingness of the holder to ship at a low price converges, and the willingness of traders and middlemen to receive and replenish the goods is increased. There has been a marked increase in the number of recipients in the market, with more active trading and strong prices. Downstream due to weekend inventory superimposed approved low prices, Friday procurement increased significantly compared with the previous day. The overall deal in East China is better on Friday.

Summary: the speed of domestic electrolytic aluminum storage slows down, the market is worried that the off-season consumption in July-August may be exhausted, the disk in the face of macro marginal warming stimulus digestion faster, it is expected that the short-term unilateral aluminum prices will continue to rise, you can try in the 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton range.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)