[SMM analysis] has Guangdong aluminum ingot entered the storage cycle?

SMM statistics on June 27, the country's mainstream consumer electrolytic aluminum inventory of 1.051 million tons, down 30000 tons from last Thursday, but the decline was mainly concentrated in East China (Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou), Guangdong Nanhai region increased by 5000 tons.

Why is Guangdong tired this week? Through SMM investigation and analysis, there are mainly the following reasons.

First, this week is the last trading week in June, traders stop trading, enter the monthly settlement stage, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not as good as a few weeks before; second, in the middle of the capital flow is more tense, downstream enterprises have been prepared in advance, SMM statistics June 2, 3 weeks South China Sea inventory weekly have dropped nearly 10,000 tons, so this week downstream enterprise aluminum ingot inventory is sufficient, and absolute price is not advantage, downstream natural buying is not high; Third, the month-on-month arrival volume in Guangdong remained basically stable this week, resulting in an increase in the total inventory volume as a result of the decline in the volume of output.

Next week is the first trading week in July, will also gradually enter the off-season of building materials consumption, and Guangdong is the construction aluminum profile enterprises concentrated, it is expected that next week the South China Sea area will be stable or even slightly reduced, do not rule out the possibility of continuous accumulation of stocks.