SMM, June 28 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-
In terms of power batteries, due to the impact of the price reduction of the "National five" models, the market demand for new energy passenger cars has shifted, and the production of ternary power batteries has been reduced by more than expected. Industry demand is blocked, power battery production is reduced, and the inventory level of upstream positive materials is directly raised. In contrast, as the new energy bus market tends to be saturated, the low mileage passenger car market is less affected by the price reduction of the "National five" models, and the energy storage market demand is gradually starting. The superposition of the three market factors has a positive impact on the production of stable lithium iron phosphate batteries. In June, the overall output of the leading battery plant decreased by more than 1/3. At present, the overall operating rate of the power battery industry is less than 30%. SMM expects July to enter the industry's traditional off-season, power battery production will continue to decline, but the rate will slow. The downturn is likely to continue until the end of the third quarter.
In terms of consumer batteries, the market demand for electric bicycles and electric tools is more optimistic in the near future, which provides a certain support for the output of ternary batteries and lithium manganate batteries. In the traditional 3C market, due to the downstream consumers are still waiting for the progress of 5G, there is little possibility of new and replacement demand this year. It is expected that the demand will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the production of lithium cobalt acid battery will not change much.
Three-way material: the output of power battery factory continues to decrease, and the inventory level of material factory is pulled up passively. Because the output base of 5 series materials is the largest, and part of the demand is replaced by 8 series materials, the impact of battery reduction is the most obvious.
Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: this week, foreign media prices continue to decline, big factory quotations are strong, intend to wait for foreign media prices to fall to the same level in China and then adjust the quotation according to the market situation. Although the downstream buyer has a wait-and-see mentality, but at the end of the month, this week a small number of prices due to rigid demand, trading prices fell slightly. In the aspect of cobalt hydroxide, the seller's inventory pressure is greater, the shipping mentality is positive, the buyer's finished product sales price continues to decline, the purchase is particularly cautious, the psychological price is low, the transaction price drops. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 23.1-244000 yuan / ton, which is 3000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The price of SMM cobalt hydroxide was $8.8 to $9 per pound, down $0.15 per pound from last week.
Cobalt salt and nickel salt: cobalt salt market continues to be depressed, downstream production reduction events continue to ferment, people panic, manufacturers are reluctant to take the initiative to reduce prices due to cost pressure, it is still difficult to withstand the downturn of the market difficult to operate. The price of SMM cobalt sulfate is 38000 yuan / ton, an average price drop of 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 4.5-47000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM nickel sulfate is 23500.00-26000.00 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Cobalt tetroxide: cobalt tetroxide price decline, compared with the power market, lithium cobalt acid market demand coincides with the off-season, but the downstream demand foundation is more mature, relatively stable, there is no large shrinkage of the situation. Trading prices in the buyer's market, downstream efforts to depress the price of the case, the gradual pullback. The current price of SMM cobalt oxide is 16.4-169000 yuan / ton, which is 3500 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.
Ternary precursor (523 dynamic type): the price of ternary precursor is flat, some manufacturers in order to ask for funds to return a small amount of extremely low price shipment, it is expected that the future price of ternary precursor is under pressure. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523) is 7.7-79000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622) is 8.30-85000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium carbonate: lithium carbonate prices continued to fall this week. At a time when battery-grade lithium carbonate manufacturers negotiate prices with downstream cathode material manufacturers in July, downstream demand has plummeted, lithium salt companies have to take price reduction measures to cope with market changes. Industrial grade lithium carbonate, due to some of which is converted to battery-grade lithium carbonate consumption, the battery-grade lithium carbonate demand has been sharply reduced, the natural corresponding purification demand has been reduced. Although the demand for industrial grade lithium carbonate has weakened, it has been relatively gentle. The price of SMM battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 7.2-75000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from last week. This week, the price of zero-grade lithium carbonate in SMM industry was 6.5-68000 yuan / ton, the average price was the same as last week.
Lithium hydroxide: battery grade lithium hydroxide prices continue to fall this week. At the end of the subsidy slope transition period, affected by the change of the production line structure downstream of the terminal, most of the ternary positive material production enterprises stop production and reduce production, so lithium hydroxide transaction is scarce and the supply exceeds the demand significantly. This week, the price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 8.3-85000 yuan / ton, the average price is 500 yuan / ton lower than last week.
Lithium Cobalt: lithium Cobalt prices continue to decline. Considering that the current demand for digital electronics is stable, upstream raw material prices still have no signs of stopping the decline, enterprises are not willing to purchase, transaction prices with the decline in raw material prices. The price of SMM4.35V lithium cobalt acid is 20.6-216000 yuan / ton, down 4000 yuan / ton from last week.
Three-way material: the output of power battery factory continues to decrease, and the inventory level of material factory is pulled up passively. Because the output base of 5 series materials is the largest, and part of the demand is replaced by 8 series materials, the impact of battery reduction is the most obvious. The price of SMM ternary material (523 type) is 13.1-139000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622 type) is 14.7-154000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton lower than last week.
Lithium iron phosphate (power type): the price of lithium iron phosphate is flat this week. According to industry insiders, the recent market for lithium iron phosphate is stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation in demand. However, the price is low, and there is a lot of pressure on the operation of cathode material manufacturers. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) this week was 47-50, 000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from last week.
Lithium manganate: lithium manganate traded smoothly this week, with prices falling slightly. Large and medium-sized lithium manganate manufacturers said that the overall order situation is stable, compared with last month, little change. But now the market is not active enough, and manufacturers that have been trading in cash have had to give a book period. This week SMM lithium manganate (volume type) price is 3-38000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 500 yuan / ton compared with last week. This week SMM lithium manganate (dynamic) price is 47-50, 000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Future forecast: SMM to maintain the previous point of view, the third quarter of the domestic consumer market is relatively stable, power market demand contraction. Feedback to the positive material market, the four positive electrodes, three yuan will have a more obvious reduction in production. The gradual release of new lithium capacity will directly run into sales difficulties, reducing production, delaying production or dragging down prices in the short term. Cobalt, ternary demand weakening, the digital market this year demand judgment is stable, bottom willingness to hesitate, cobalt prices are difficult to find many factors.
SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team
Hong Lu 021 51666814
Ning Ziwei 021 51666780
Qin Jingjing 021 51666828