6.28 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Market surface: overnight aluminum closing price was US $1797 / ton, down US $15.5 / ton, showing a unilateral downward trend within the day; overnight Shanghai Aluminum 1908 closing price was at 13830 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton, mainly with short positions.

Macro: the president met with the Japanese Prime Minister yesterday to reach a consensus to speed up the negotiation process of the free trade agreement between China, Japan and South Korea; the economic and trade teams of China and the United States are communicating, and details of China's list of unreliable entities will be announced in the near future. The NDRC said that the full liberalization of the power generation plan for operating power users has no direct impact on the electrolytic aluminum industry, but the recent reform of the power system will affect the way and price of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to buy electricity. Compared with the previous two years, the current network price is a little lower. Enterprises can buy directly from the power trading market, and have no impact on their own power plants.

Fundamentals: alumina transaction has been less than 2800 yuan / ton, SMM statistics of the national consumer electrolytic aluminum inventory dropped 30, 000 tons to 1.051 million tons last Thursday, of which Wuxi, Hangzhou inventory decline, Nanhai, Tianjin inventory increased; 6063 aluminum rod inventory increased 6000 tons compared with last Thursday; alumina prices still have about 150 yuan down space; On June 26, Mexico issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on China's aluminum pressure cookers and decided to impose 67.72% temporary anti-dumping duties on aluminum pressure cookers originally from China. Net transmission Liaoning area electrolytic aluminum production reduced by 100000 tons, to be further verified by SMM.

Spot: yesterday morning, the transaction price between Wuxi and Shanghai was between 13910 and 13920 yuan / ton. With the announcement of the net price, the oversupply in the spot market on that day was prominent, and the difference between the current month and next month's ticket price was about 10 yuan / ton. Due to the approach of the middle of the year, traders and middlemen have reduced their business volume today, received not much, and the activity of market transactions is not as active as yesterday. Downstream manufacturers are still mainly purchasing on demand today.

Conclusion: the speed of destocking slows down, the market forecasts for the off-season of consumption from July to August, and the short-term unilateral prices continue to rise, but in the context of going to the warehouse for the whole year in the long period, we maintain the view that we can wait for a chance to try the layout of light positions below 13800.