[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

News from SMM6 on the 28th of June,

Zinc early meeting: macro: the G20 summit was officially held, and the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank in the second quarter of 2019 pointed out that the RMB exchange rate was generally stable and its ability to cope with external shocks was enhanced. It is necessary to innovate and improve macro-control, timely and appropriately implement counter-cyclical regulation, and strengthen macro-policy coordination. During the day, focus on the US PCE price index data, as well as the euro zone CPI. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

Shanghai: zinc in the future has fallen slightly, but the market demand continues to be weak, and there is no link in the imbalance between supply and demand. The discount is further expanded, from 40-30 yuan / ton to 60-50 yuan / ton. However, for long-term single transactions, the average price of the stable and safe SMM net rises by 10 to 20 yuan / ton, and the weekend will expand faster under the discount. The market trading in the second trading period focused on Shuangyan, Chihong, torch and imports and other downstream brands, but the actual consumption has no bright spot, the overall transaction continues to be weak. Guangdong: normal shipment of refineries, abundant circulation of goods in the market. In the morning, the quotation of the holder focused on the rising water of 180 to 200 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, but the market sentiment was strong and the willingness to receive the goods was not good. In the second trading session, some holders took the lead in lowering the rising water to around 140150 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, and the market transaction was significantly improved by the discount of 60 yuan to 70 yuan / ton for the current month. Today's transaction is dominated by the single contribution of the chief trader, with less downstream receiving, and the overall transaction situation is slightly better than that of yesterday. Tianjin: normal shipment of refineries, the market supply of goods is more abundant. The holder quoted in the morning on the 07 contract rising water 150 to 200 yuan / ton, but the market is more willing to wait and see the price, do not want to receive the goods. Follow-up holders cut water to 90 to 140 yuan / ton, the market willingness to receive goods slightly better, and more low-cost brand goods to contribute to the main transaction. The main reason is that a few days ago, the lower reaches of the depot overdrawn a part of the follow-up purchase volume, resulting in an increase in the circulation of goods in Tianjin today, but the transaction situation is worse than yesterday. Zinc price: the negative closing of zinc, the lower multi-channel moving average to give some support, but the weakening of overseas back structure superimposed LME zinc inventory accumulation, the contradiction between supply and demand alleviated, the follow-up action can not be strong, or around the moving average to wait for macro guidance; The negative collection of zinc, the lower multi-channel EMA to give some support, but the weakening of overseas back structure superimposed LME zinc inventory accumulation, the contradiction between supply and demand alleviated, the follow-up action can not be strong, or around the moving average to wait for macro guidance. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2470 to 2520 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or operation in the vicinity of 19750-20250 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic fall 50