6.27 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday, Lun Aluminum fell back, closing at US $1814 / ton in late trading, while Shanghai Aluminium closed overnight at 13880 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton. Macro: Wednesday Shibor downward 3.2bp reported 99.1%, the first time in nearly 10 years fell below 1%, mainly due to loose capital, monetary policy easing; in June, Beijing second-hand housing transaction volume of about 12000 units, about 72000 units in the first half of the year, the lowest value in the same period of nearly five years.
Fundamentals: the total inventory of LME aluminum ingots has fallen by 276000 tons since the last day of May 8, and the current inventory is 999000 tons. After 18 months of labor negotiations, Alcoa threatened to suspend the Quebec plant, which has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 413000 tons per year, if workers do not sign a "final agreement." At the cost end, SMM alumina continues to be reduced by about 30 yuan. At present, the quotation of SMM alumina is around 2860, but the actual transaction is less than 2800. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of aluminum plate and strip is 245000 tons, an increase of 6 percent over the same period last year, and an increase of 10 percent over the previous month. The export volume of aluminum foil is 125000 tons, an increase of 21.57% from the previous month and 11.75% from the same period last year. In May 2019, the export of aluminum profiles and bars totaled 96400 tons, an increase of 10.45 percent over the previous month, an increase of 18.83 percent over the same period last year; the export volume of aluminum doors and windows and their frames in May was 26200 tons, up 23.34 percent from the previous month and 23.10 percent from the same period last year; the export volume of aluminum strands was 21500 tons, up 54 percent from the same period last year and 46 percent from the previous month. Spot: yesterday, Wuxi spot transaction price in Shanghai concentrated between 13910 yuan / ton and 13930 yuan / ton, the price rose by 30 yuan / ton, and the difference between the current monthly ticket and next month's ticket price is only about 10 yuan / ton, the spot price of aluminum ingots is concentrated on the plate surface to maintain flat water ~ rise 10 yuan / ton, the carrier shipment is very active, the large household east China receives the goods nearly 10,000 tons, the downstream is still based on demand procurement today, receiving the goods is flat. The spot price of aluminum ingots is only about 10 yuan / ton, and the spot price of aluminum ingots is concentrated on the surface of the plate to maintain a flat water ~ 10 yuan / ton.
Summary: in the short period, the fundamental pressure is expected to be partially digested by the previous decline in aluminum prices. In the long period, we can maintain the main contract below 13800 and try the view of long-term multiple orders in the light position layout. Today, we focus on the change of aluminum ingot inventory.