SMM News: information Analysis:
(1) the market sentiment was optimistic yesterday, with the overall rise of the non-ferrous plate, the zinc price continued to rebound low, and yesterday's Shanghai zinc position continued to decrease by 3506 hands to 627000 hands, indicating that some short positions continued to stop profits and leave the market. Zinc prices fluctuated again at night.
(2) LME zinc stocks continued to recover 3200 tons to 100825 tons yesterday, mainly due to increases in Frissin and Antwerp, while LME zinc write-off warehouse receipts were 27050 tons, accounting for 26.83 per cent of inventories. Zinc warehouse receipt stocks in the previous issue fell further by 2459 tons to 39519 tons yesterday.
(4) on June 25, the LME zinc liter discount (0-3) was US $116.5 / ton, and the spot monthly rising water of LME zinc remained at a relatively high level.
(5) the spot quotation of domestic zinc continued to rise yesterday. Shanghai 0 # ordinary brand to Shanghai zinc 07 contract continues to be downgraded to 10-40 yuan / ton, the market is mainly shipping, downstream wait-and-see, the transaction is weak; Tianjin to Shanghai market rising water expanded to 150 yuan / ton, the market arrival increased, the transaction has not been significantly improved; Guangdong Shanghai stock market turned to a small increase of 10 yuan / ton, the transaction difference.
Logic: the certainty of the recovery of zinc supply in the medium term is strong, and the current trend of seasonal weakness in consumption has been very prominent. Although the domestic zinc ingot inventory has been degenerated again on the 24th, the upward trend of inventory has not changed in the later period, so the expectation of weak zinc fundamentals continues. However, the late delivery of LME zinc is still expected. Driven by the recovery in market sentiment yesterday, zinc prices continued to rebound low within the day, but fell back again at night, indicating increased volatility in zinc prices. The focus is on meeting between Chinese and US leaders at this week's G20 summit, tracking further guidance on macro sentiment. Overall, the short-term zinc price performance may be repeated, the medium-term zinc price downward trend is expected to continue.
Operation advice: empty single holding; buy copper to sell zinc, buy aluminum to sell zinc.
Risk factors: the RMB fluctuates sharply, the macro mood changes obviously. (source: Citic Futures)