SMM News: after Trump attacked the Federal Reserve and Iran for "tough words" on Tuesday, risk aversion returned after Trump attacked the Federal Reserve and Iran, with the yen soaring and gold surging through the 1430 mark, refreshing the highest level since May 2013 to $1438.
According to the latest news in the morning, US President Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had a mistake in understanding his four-year term. "if I want to, I can fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell."
At 01: 00 Beijing time on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on monetary policy. The dollar and gold will wait and see.
Kevin Cummins, senior US economist at NatWest Markets, said: "there is always a possibility that Powell will withdraw from the dovish impression of the market at last week's FOMC (FOMC) meeting, but we suspect he will reinforce the signal he sent last week."
Cummins added: "by the end of July, we think the Fed has seen enough [data] to make a decision to take action against downside risks and low inflation / inflation expectations, so we expect a rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting."
If Powell releases a more dovish message tonight, the dollar will come under pressure again and gold is expected to break through the 1440 mark.
In fact, market expectations are even higher. The futures market has fully digested the 0.25 percentage point rate cut and hinted that it is likely to cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points.
In this context, in view of the intraday euro, sterling, Australian dollar, yen and Canadian dollar performance, the organization forexcycle wrote a brief analysis, the content is as follows:
Euro / dollar
The euro remains above the upward trend line on the four-hour chart and is still rising since 1.1181.
As long as the trend line support is held, the upward movement is expected to continue, with the next target looking at area 1.1450.
On the downside, only falling below the trend line support suggests the integrity of the rally.
(euro / USD 4 hour chart source: forexcycle)
Sterling / US dollar
The pound remains above the upward trend line on the four-hour chart and is still in the upward trend that has been in place since 1.2505.
As long as the trend line support is held, the rally is expected to continue, with the next target at 1.2850.
The key support is at 1.2642, and only falling below that level suggests the end of the rally.
(GBP / USD 4 hour chart source: forexcycle)
Australian dollar / US dollar
The Australian dollar's rally, which began in 0.6831, continued to reach a high of 0.6972.
As long as prices remain above the uptrend line on the 4-hour chart, the upward movement is expected to continue, with the next target looking at the integer 0.7000 mark.
Only by falling below the above trend line support can we hint at the end of the rally.
(Aussie dollar / US $4 hour chart source: forexcycle)
Dollar / yen
The dollar fell below support level 107.04 against the yen, meaning the decline from 108.80 has restarted.
The exchange rate is expected to fall further in the next few days, with the next target set at 106.50.
On the upside, the key resistance is 107.73, which is the only way to get prices back to 108.20.
(dollar / yen 4 hour chart source: forexcycle)
Us dollar / Canadian dollar
The US dollar / Canadian dollar traded horizontally in the range of 1.3150 to 1.3228.
As long as the resistance level of 1.3228 is not conquered. Then the price range movement will be seen as a consolidation of the downward trend, after which it is likely to fall further to the 1.3100 level.
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