[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]

On the 25th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: tensions escalate between the United States and Iraq, with Trump imposing sanctions on Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and eight senior military commanders in the country. Iran says U. S. sanctions are in defiance of international law. Iran's president has asked the United States to make more concessions. Mr Trump once again attacked the Fed for being too tight. The contractor incident warned China's credit bond market that structured issuance is facing unprecedented challenges. Pay attention to what Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will say on Tuesday. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: Shanghai: zinc exploration low and rising, smelter shipment has been controlled, but the market zinc supply is relatively abundant, traders are mainly shipping, the Shanghai stock market is still in the buyer's market, the quotation from the morning market rising water 80 100 yuan / ton down quickly adjusted to the rising water 50 70 yuan / ton, but at the same time, the low price has been quoted to the rising water 30 40 yuan / ton, The price difference between the current month and the next month is 0 to 10 yuan / ton, and there is no big gap. The rapid reduction of the rising sticker water makes the consignors slightly cautious, and the net average price rises by 10 to 30 yuan / ton. The transaction is relatively active. In the second trading session, the market quotation was generally reduced to about 40 yuan / ton, but the long single trading was closed, and the lower reaches of zinc futures returned to the lower reaches to wait cautiously again, and the overall market had more and less transactions to cool down. the transaction is not much different from last Friday. Guangdong: plate down, refineries slightly cherish the sale, the holder actively shipped, the morning period mostly focused on the 08 contract price rising water 270 300 yuan / ton, just when the plate surface has a small upward, the holder saw the trend to lower the rising water to 240 250, 07 contract basically maintained in the discount 10 yuan / ton-rising water 10 yuan / ton, after the water cut, the market transaction situation has improved obviously. Today, the trading atmosphere in Guangdong market is relatively warm, and the transaction situation is basically flat on Friday. Tianjin: the disk is down, refineries are cherished and sold, and the circulation of goods in the market is tight. Therefore, the holder's willingness to push up the price is stronger, and in the morning, it was reported that the rising water of the 07 contract was around 150 to 380 yuan / ton, and some of the subsequent holders quoted the supply of high-priced brands such as Zijin at about 250 yuan / ton for the 07 contract. Zijin brand supply fell back. The follow-up market basically traded around 150 to 290 yuan / ton of rising water for the 07 contract. Due to the tight circulation of goods in Tianjin market today, the willingness to push up the price of the market is higher, the overall market trading atmosphere is heating up today, and the willingness to receive goods downstream is positive. The overall market transaction is better than last Friday. Zinc price: Brindao under the track support strength, Lun zinc negative turn red, LME zinc inventory again recorded a decline of 1675 tons, give zinc price a certain support, within a day to observe the integer gate pressing strength. Overnight Shanghai zinc reduction upward, jump on Brin Road down the track, social inventory accumulation expectations failed, short positions fled, helping to push Shanghai zinc higher, but the spot market is light, follow-up action can still be considered. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2480-2530 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or run in the vicinity of 19950-20450 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic increase 220.