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[SMM Daily Review]
Jun 24,2019 17:21CST
translation
Source:SMM
Today, domestic commodity futures closed mixed, most non-ferrous metals fluttering green, Shanghai copper fell 0.3%, Shanghai tin fell 0.71%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai nickel fell more than 0.5%, Shanghai lead rose 0.72%, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. Black rose the most, hot roll rose more than 3.5%, iron ore fell more than 1%, thread rose more than 2%, coke rose slightly, coking coal fell nearly 1%.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 24-month news: today's domestic commodity futures closed mixed, most non-ferrous metals fluttering green, Shanghai copper fell 0.3%, Shanghai tin fell 0.71%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai nickel fell more than 0.5%, Shanghai lead rose 0.72%, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. Black rose the most, hot roll rose more than 3.5%, iron ore fell more than 1%, thread rose more than 2%, coke rose slightly, coking coal fell nearly 1%.

The main 1908 contract of Shanghai Copper fell back on June 24. The US economic data did not perform well, and Clarida, vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, said interest rate cuts were more likely to come in, putting pressure on the US finger, while copper strikes in Chile continued and Chinese scrap copper imports were on a downward trend to support the futures price. Spot aspect, the transaction still shows the zigsaw characteristic, after the quotation has been reduced, the transaction has improved slightly, the downstream still maintains the rigid demand, the supply and demand side stalemate situation is expected to continue. On Monday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 59498 tons, a daily decrease of 2923 tons; on June 21, LME copper stocks were 246050 tons, a daily decrease of 1000 tons. Stocks of cathode copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 4809 tons to 134747 tons in the week ended June 21, refreshing the lowest level since February 1 for 12 weeks in a row. LME zinc rose slightly today, still running below the moving average group, rising 0.45 per cent to $2444 a tonne as of 15-24 Beijing time. The market data are light today, the dollar index has moderated, and the market is concerned that China and the United States may restart trade talks at this week's G20 summit. In addition, the trend of zinc inventory in the two cities is divided, showing an external decline and internal increase, the decline of LME zinc inventory may be part of the support for the weak zinc price. June 24 SMM spot zinc offer is 19780 to 19880 yuan / ton, the average price is 130 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day. SMM reported that smelter shipments have been controlled, but the market zinc supply is relatively abundant, traders mainly to ship, downstream once again enter cautious waiting, the overall market more less transactions cooled, the transaction is not much different from last Friday.

The US government plans to announce a series of new sanctions against Iran on Monday, and President Trump has also expressed his willingness to hold talks with Iranian leaders without any prerequisites. The international crude oil futures price has fluctuated and the Asian market has continued to recover. Brent crude oil is trading at $65.40 a barrel, while WTI crude is trading at $57.90 a barrel. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil price difference is about $7.50 / barrel, Shanghai crude oil futures price rose, compared with Brent crude oil sticker water is about $0.10 / barrel.

SMM analyst's brief comment on June 24:

Copper: today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper 1908 opened at 46830 yuan / ton in the morning, and then reached the lowest of 46750 yuan / ton in the day. Subsequently, the market showed a trend of pulling up, but the rising power was insufficient, and the copper price fell back many times. Finally, the copper price reached the highest level of 46880 yuan / ton in the day. After a small probe, the market continued to decline. After the opening of afternoon trading, the bulls actively reduced their positions, copper prices fluctuated all the way down and gave up all their gains in the morning. At the end of the day, it closed at the lowest level of 46750 yuan per ton, down 46750 yuan per ton, or 0.3 per cent. Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper reduced its position by 612 hands to 245000 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 27000 hands to 138000 hands. Shanghai Copper 1909 and 1910 contracts increased by 5722 hands to 162000. The Shanghai Copper Index contract lost 2600 hands to 586000 today. Trading volume fell by 54000 hands to 247000. The lack of confidence in the copper price rally today is mainly due to the further deterioration of the situation in the United States and Iraq, resulting in a strong atmosphere of risk aversion in the market, the superposition of economic slowdown in Europe, the spread of overall macro weakness, and concerns with the market about the outcome of the G20 negotiations. it is difficult for many factors to support the copper price to stand firm. At the technical level, the KDJ index of Shanghai copper shows a negative trend today, the red column of MACD index is shortened, and the technology is lack of support in the face of copper price. At night, we wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai copper can hold the 46700 yuan / ton gate.

Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum main company 1908 contract opened at 13770 yuan / ton in the morning, opened briefly up to 13810 yuan / ton, but the upper pressure is obvious, then fell back to the intraday low of 13760 yuan / ton, hovered at 13795 yuan / ton in the afternoon to maintain a narrow range of shock, began to float above the daily average in the afternoon, along the 5-day moving average to try to climb high, all the way up to the intraday high of 13845 yuan / ton, the end of the day slightly softened, closed at 13830 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton, the afternoon began to float above the daily average, along the 5-day moving average to climb higher, the end of the day slightly softened, closed at 13830 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton, Trading volume fell 28974 hands to 123000 hands, positions fell 2448 hands to 266000 hands, and the daily K line closed at the Xiaoyang line, but the overall center of gravity remained below all averages. Today's release of electrolytic aluminum inventory data, the decline is narrower than last week, while taking into account the cost and consumption side of the lack of new bullish news, Shanghai aluminum is expected to remain below the Wansi pass in the evening, pay attention to long short positions and market atmosphere changes.

Lead: Shanghai lead 1908 contract opened at 15975 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, Shanghai lead along the 15995 yuan / ton line consolidation, after Henan started pollution control, affecting part of the lead smelting production of the news, more increase air reduction, Shanghai lead concussion platform moved to 16130 yuan / ton, finally reported at 16160 yuan / ton, up 115 yuan / ton, up 0.72%, position increased 3256 hands to 48912 hands. Shanghai lead to accept Dayang line, reverse package of the previous negative line, and the 5-day EMA turn up, but the above 60-day EMA resistance is greater, Shanghai lead at night may be supported by the 20-day EMA, and test the pressure of 16250 yuan / ton platform.

Zinc: the main 1908 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 19480 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. At the beginning of the day, the Shanghai zinc returned to rise after stepping on 19350 yuan / ton. The short position left the market to boost Shanghai zinc up to 19520 yuan / ton, and the narrow concussion was arranged near this position. After that, the short position left the field neatly again. The Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity moved up to 19580 yuan / ton line, and the overall operation was near the lower rail of Brindao Road. Subsequently, the Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity sank slightly to 19550 yuan / ton, and then the Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity sank slightly to 19550 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, it rose again to 19580 yuan per ton, closing up 19585 yuan per ton, up 115 yuan per ton, or 0.59 percent, from the previous transaction. Trading volume increased by 24900 hands to 562000 hands, and position volume decreased by 25576 hands to 307000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc stopped yin and yang, jumped off all the EMA as a whole, and the MACD index formed a dead fork, indicating that Shanghai zinc had no greater action energy. During the day, domestic inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin recorded a slight decline, giving zinc prices a little momentum to stop falling. However, the market still has expectations for subsequent accumulations, and there is still no big improvement at the consumer end. Zinc price return kinetic energy is still to be considered, night or under pressure Brin Road off the track operation.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1908 contract opened at 98480 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the day, shanghai nickel was supported by the daily average of 98500 yuan / ton, which rose slightly, and fell back to the daily average line after bearing pressure of 99000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel received 98500 yuan / ton first-line support, the center of gravity around 98600 yuan / ton line narrow range fluctuations, closed at 98670 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 530yuan / ton, down 0.53%, position decreased 10000 hands to 226000 hands, trading volume decreased 12800 hands to 316000 hands. All day, Shanghai nickel main contract closed in the small Yang line, has fallen below the 5-day moving average, below by the 20-day moving average support. In the evening, we will pay attention to whether Shanghai nickel can be supported by the 20-day EMA and hold the 98000 yuan / ton gate. The data were light tonight.

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