SMM News: recently, "the average fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises and new energy vehicle points parallel management method" (hereinafter referred to as the "double integral" policy) has once again entered the public eye. It has been reported that the "double points" policy is likely to be released in June for public consultation. The "double points" policy, announced in September 2017, is about to usher in a long-rumored revision after nearly two years out of Taiwan. Some people in the industry have revealed that one of the revised directions of the "double points" policy is to focus on cracking down on products with high energy consumption and pseudo energy conservation in the current market, and may encourage and guide the further development of hybrid power products.
There are policies and countermeasures.
From the beginning of the design, the "double integral" policy has shouldered the mission of encouraging and promoting the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in China, and guiding enterprises to reduce the energy consumption of traditional energy vehicles. The policy hopes to encourage enterprises to take the initiative to develop energy-saving and new energy vehicles, actively reduce energy consumption, form a long-term mechanism, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and accelerate the development of new energy vehicles. However, from the date of landing, this policy has encountered a lot of problems in its implementation.
The more prominent problem is that the integral transaction has not been achieved, through the market-oriented way to form sufficient incentives or punishment for enterprises. According to the 2018 China passenger vehicle double points report released by the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (hereinafter referred to as the "double points" report), in 2017, the total score of new energy vehicles in the industry has reached 1.79 million points, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the industry as a whole has reached 7.2%, and the proportion of autonomous vehicle enterprises has reached 19%. In 2018, the new energy vehicle score ratio is expected to be as high as 15%, far exceeding the policy requirement of 10% for new energy vehicles. This has led to the dilemma of excessive supply of points for new energy vehicles, making the trading price of points much lower than the estimated price at the time of the original design. Contrary to the surplus of points for new energy vehicles, the average fuel consumption deviates from what was expected at the time of policy making. Because the negative integral of the average fuel consumption can be compensated by the positive integral of new energy vehicles, it reduces the enthusiasm of enterprises to reduce the average fuel consumption to a certain extent. The data in the "double points" report show that the decline in the average fuel consumption of China's traditional energy passenger vehicles is slowing down. The three-year decline narrowed from 2.8 per cent to 2 per cent from 2015 to 2017 and reached a new low of 1.7 per cent in 2017. The energy consumption of traditional fuel vehicles under independent brands has also shown a slight increase trend.
From the perspective of the realistic dilemma, enterprises have countermeasures to deal with the "double integral" policy. Some analysts pointed out that the countermeasures of enterprises do not have any "moral" color, but in accordance with the market environment and policy guidance to choose the most suitable for their own strategic development. In the past two years, the market of pure electric vehicles is hot, which has realized the purpose of "double integral" policy to develop new energy vehicles to a certain extent. However, to a certain extent, it has also connived at the inertia of enterprises to reduce the fuel consumption of traditional energy vehicles. Moreover, there is a considerable proportion of products in pure electric vehicles, which is contrary to the original intention of energy saving and emission reduction from the point of view of energy consumption.
Policy adjustment is imperative "double integral" policy adjustment rumors for a long time, mainly focused on adding new technical assessment indicators, raising the existing assessment threshold; reducing new energy passenger vehicles bicycle points and upper limit, pure electric, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and other new energy models to adjust the score; encourage hybrid power and other low fuel consumption models; introduce economic punishment measures and so on. No matter how many of these rumors can eventually become the content of the adjustment, but to some extent reflects the expectations and emotions of the market. An industry expert told reporters that because the "double integral" policy carries too much content and expectations, it is quite difficult to implement it.
"I think the adjustment of the 'double integral' policy needs to clarify an overall train of thought, analyze the mainstream and tributaries, whole and part, certainty and possibility of the development of the automobile industry, and make these predictions well. It is very useful to determine the adjustment direction of the 'double integral' policy." Du Fangci, consultant of the China Association of Automobile Industries, analyzed to reporters, "from a macro point of view, traditional energy vehicles will still occupy a relatively large market share for a long time." From the speed of scientific and technological progress, the limitations of battery technology still exist, and it is difficult to achieve a major breakthrough in the short term. Based on this judgment, I think the energy saving and consumption reduction of traditional energy vehicles is still a very important task. At present, the energy saving potential of traditional fuel passenger cars in China is still more than 40%, and more than 15% of the energy saving effect can be achieved only through engine technology optimization. In other sub-areas, such as transmission with energy saving potential of more than 6%, low friction technology with energy saving potential of more than 8%, electronics and electrical appliances with energy saving potential of more than 15% (including 48V systems), lightweight technology can also bring more than 6% energy saving potential. " Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. said the relevant person in charge.
Du Fangci believes that with the continuous upgrading of emission regulations, the standard has gradually approached the limit of the technical potential of traditional internal combustion engines, so it is necessary to pay attention to promoting some or all of the electrification of traditional energy vehicles to improve the energy consumption of traditional energy vehicles. Some time ago, our country put too much emphasis on the development of pure electric vehicles, and the policy guidance also tilted to this field, which led to the slow progress of our traditional internal combustion engine technology, which objectively widened the distance between our country and the international advanced level. "while supporting the development of pure electric vehicles, we should pay attention to the energy consumption of the products." "some products with high levels of energy consumption should be withdrawn from the market," du added. "
Hybrid models may benefit
According to the analysis of the direction in which the policy may be adjusted, the new energy products on the market are "mixed". Not only are there rumors of a "double-point" policy adjustment, at the end of last year, the National Standardization Administration Committee issued the "Electric vehicle Energy consumption rate limit," which also made many enterprises aware of the "crisis."
"just as fuel consumption is important to fuel vehicles, power consumption will become one of the most important technical indicators for pure electric vehicles. The level of power consumption is more to test the level of electronic control technology of the main engine factory, and the research and development of electronic control system is the most important work and technical reserve of a pure electric vehicle manufacturer. " The relevant person in charge of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. told reporters, "in the future, Jianghuai Automobile will promote the industrialization of new power batteries, and lithium batteries with energy density up to 300Wh/kg will be industrialized by 2020; at the same time, new system batteries, such as all-solid batteries with energy density up to 400Wh/kg, will achieve demonstration applications."
In addition to reducing the energy consumption of pure electric vehicles, the independent brand car enterprises represented by Chang'an and Jianghuai continue to explore the energy saving and emission reduction of engines. Changan Automobile has just launched the first 1.4T engine of Blue Whale NE platform, which adopts double vortex tube electronically controlled turbocharged direct injection and intelligent cam phase modulation technology; Jianghuai 1.5T + engine adopts in-cylinder direct injection, turbocharging and double variable valve timing technology. The two products have made considerable efforts to reduce fuel consumption.
Hybrid products are likely to face a different situation. Plug-in hybrid products are not optimistic by the industry, as a transitional product, plug-in hybrid power may not be able to get more policy tilt in the possible adjustment. Other forms of hybrid products have a lot of uncertainty. "the development of hybrid technology is more complex, involving not only traditional machinery such as engines and transmissions, but also motor and related module control in new energy vehicles. Different from the pure electric vehicle market, there are different solutions for both joint venture brands and independent brands in China, and there is no dominant and mainstream hybrid technology scheme in the development of hybrid electric vehicles." Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. said that at present Jianghuai uses 1.5T++HyBoost and 48V BSG system to form its own micro-mixing solution, advance the layout of the mixed market.
No matter how the final policy falls, the direction of further encouraging traditional energy models to reduce consumption, fine management of energy conservation and new energy vehicles can almost be determined, and the product pattern in the future market will also follow the principle of phasing out pseudo energy-saving products and encouraging the promotion of truly low-energy products.
Adjust the wind and make the enterprise start early
Power system welcomes electrification in an all-round way
On June 4, Changan Motor announced the power brand Bluewhale Power, which took nearly five years to develop the NE platform and cost nearly 10 billion yuan. As an exploration of traditional automobile energy consumption and new energy vehicle products, Changan Automobile thinks that this kind of R & D layout is good value for money.
The thermal efficiency of the first 1.4T engine on the Bluewhale NE platform is as high as 40%, setting a record for the thermal efficiency of its own brand engine, which has attracted a lot of attention. But in fact, Blue Whale Power is a systematic solution for Changan Automobile to explore the pursuit of automobile efficiency. Blue whale power brand consists of blue whale engine, blue whale transmission, blue whale oil-electric hybrid drive. At the beginning of its design, the Bluewhale NE power platform (engine) was fully compatible with 48V, HEV, PHEV and REEV, to fully "embrace" electrification. Blue whale transmission includes blue whale 7 speed wet DCT transmission, 6 speed blue whale hybrid transmission. Blue whale oil-electric hybrid drive system is the blue whale engine and blue whale transmission in the process of electrification evolution, concluded into a future-oriented power integration scheme, including the first highly integrated P2 hybrid power system-blue whale 6-speed hybrid system, compatible with PHEV and HEV.
Both traditional Energy and Pure Electric vehicles should pursue low Energy consumption
With regard to the power consumption of pure electric vehicles, Jianghuai Automobile believes that the mainstream technical route is to improve the energy efficiency and charging convenience of electric vehicles. First of all, in terms of energy efficiency, the technological changes of high-efficiency electric drive system will take place in the next five years, that is, high-speed, high-efficiency and miniaturization of motor drive system. Secondly, the new generation of high-frequency and high-efficiency power electronics represented by silicon carbide will be widely used, which is bound to support the development of high-speed motor and make the motor develop in the direction of small, high efficiency and low cost. Thirdly, the new generation of heat pump air conditioning technology has made a major breakthrough, and began to promote industrialization. Finally, the whole vehicle energy efficiency optimization integration technology has made a breakthrough, power consumption is the most important index of the whole vehicle integration technology level, the energy saving of electric vehicle is more important than fuel vehicle, and should be managed by laws and regulations.
At present, Jianghuai New Energy focuses on the technology and technological maturity of improving product power, such as battery safety, battery energy density enhancement based on state subsidies, electric drive integration, and so on. To achieve comprehensive vehicle operating conditions as high as 500 km, to achieve an overall reduction of vehicle energy consumption by 5%, to achieve an overall reduction of vehicle cost by 10% to 15%. By 2020, Jianghuai Automobile should technically solve the problems of high energy density, low energy consumption and low cost, and achieve the goal that it can be equivalent to the cost of fuel vehicles. The latest generation of liquid-cooled battery package, which is used in Jianghuai iEV6E sports version, adopts lightweight aluminum shell, the energy density of the system is 145 Whg / kg, the service life can reach 200000 km, and the driving mileage under comprehensive operating conditions is 310 km.
statements of a school
"double integral" New deal should be more approachable
The original intention of the "double points" policy is very good. I hope to establish a large, detailed, enforceable and continuous policy, so as to promote and guide the two major propositions in the domestic automobile industry (traditional energy vehicles and new energy vehicles). However, the degree of "bone feeling" in reality exceeded the expectations of the designers. China's automobile market is too large, the demand is also very diversified, hoping to be able to adjust all aspects through a unified policy, it seems inadequate.
A good policy should be forward-looking. In order to guide the development of the industry strategically from the perspective of policy design, we do not need to work hard on an average, but we need to distinguish between the primary and secondary branches. I am afraid that in the end, it will be "nothing for the bamboo basket to draw water from the water." in order to guide the development of the industry from the perspective of policy design, it is not necessary to make an average effort to guide the development of the industry. A good policy should also have a clear orientation and be able to carry out the original intention of policy formulation through various incentives or penalties. No matter reward or punishment, there should be corresponding strength. Good policies should be easier to implement.
Therefore, along the "double integral" policy adjustment of the analysis, the automobile industry seems to have a unified understanding. As the world's largest new car market, there are no stones ahead to touch. The industry should establish the position of traditional fuel vehicles in the future development as soon as possible, and divide the roles of pure electric, hybrid, fuel cell and other different technical paths according to the primary and secondary, success probability and so on.
As one of the participants in the market, the "cleverness" in product strategy is a game result between policy pressure and cost. As the main body of business under the market economy, there is nothing wrong with the pursuit of profit in accordance with the regulations. The existing products, whether hybrid vehicles or pure electric vehicles, have also become the proof of "existence is reasonable". However, enterprises should have keen insight and have their own views and judgment on the industry. Once the policy corrects itself, then the products that do not conform to the direction will "die of light" at some point, and if we do not reserve the possible technical routes, the huge market vacuum will leave enterprises sighing.
If the policy is stable and sustained, enterprises will no longer hesitate, consumers will not hold money to wait and see, and will be willing to pay for cars. If this chain is combed down, can we think about whether we can simplify and focus our policies and separate the consumption reduction of traditional energy vehicles from the encouragement and guidance of new energy vehicles, so that the industry will give up fantasies and speculation and do its own thing in a down-to-earth, simple and down-to-earth manner?