[SMM Review] most ferrous metals rose more in early trading than the collective decline in non-ferrous metals.

SMM6 24: most of the non-ferrous fell in early trading, but not much. Shanghai nickel fell more than 0.5%, Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.55, Shanghai zinc fell 0.66%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.33%, Shanghai lead fell 0.31%, Shanghai copper fell 0.11%. Most of the black rose, coke rose 2%, iron ore fell more than 2%, hot roll rose nearly 5%, thread rose more than 3.5%, coking coal fell slightly.

The main contract of Shanghai Copper rebounded to 47020 yuan after opening 46660 yuan overnight. Later, it was slightly pressured to close at 46830 yuan, a drop of 0.04 per cent. LME copper fell overnight to $5928 after the Asian market closed, after a late backpumping, closing at $5959.5, down 0.21 per cent. Copper prices fluctuated overnight, the Chilean mining minister urged an end to the strike, and markets waited carefully ahead of the G20 meeting. After the inspection period of the basic copper market is over, the supply pressure is released, and the demand enters the off-season. Short-term market sentiment will affect copper prices, focusing on whether the progress of the Sino-US trade talks can provide a boost to optimism. According to SMM, on June 21, 2019, a furnace leakage accident occurred in an aluminum plant in Guangxi, with a long power outage, affecting the output of 100t / day, the specific situation to be confirmed by the authorities; under the background of the weakening of aluminum profile consumption, the processing fees of aluminum bars in many regions of China remained down; Henan Jiaozuo area carried out environmental protection and limited production for aluminum processing enterprises, and Henan Wanfang, the main supplier of electrolytic aluminum water, had to increase ingots. In May 2019, China exported 7536 tons of alumina and imported 60, 000 tons. Exports fell 91.6 percent year on year, and imports rose 134.9 percent year on year. On Friday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 13860 and 13880 yuan / ton, which was flat to 10 yuan / ton that month, down about 30 yuan / ton from the previous day.

As of press time, crude oil futures prices: SC:444.7 yuan / barrel (+ 1.48%); WTI:57.87 yuan / barrel (+ 0.77%); BRENT:65.35 US dollar / barrel (+ 1%), June 28 Sino-US summit G20, early July OPEC+ meeting, need to pay attention to the possible risks in the future. If the OPEC maintains a production reduction of 1.2 million barrels per day, it will be lower than market expectations, putting pressure on higher oil prices.

Today's forecast:

Copper: at present, Shanghai copper has the trend of falling below the middle rail of Brin, the KDJ index is expanded down, and the technology is lack of support in the face of copper price. Today, although the spot market is close to long single delivery, but is expected to continue last week's stalemate pattern, the willingness of holders to sell goods is weak, the market transaction heat is not high, pay attention to the import of copper into the market, is expected to put pressure on the holders, forcing the reduction of rising water. Today, it is estimated that the amount of copper in London is US $5920 to US $5980 / ton, Shanghai Copper is 46500 to 47000 yuan / ton, and the spot water supply is 20-80 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: today's SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, is expected to still be in the storage cycle, the material Shanghai Aluminum main Company 1908 contract days running in 13700 to 14000 yuan / ton, spot to the current month in Pingshui to rise 20 yuan / ton.

Lead: Fed rate cut expectations strengthened, the dollar since February 2018, the largest weekly decline since February 2018; at the same time, due to geopolitical factors, PetroAmerica hit the biggest weekly rise in the last two and a half years, and basic metals due to domestic demand is generally weak, the trend is depressed, of which lead spot transactions are dismal, coupled with the recovery of original lead refinery maintenance expectations, and recycled lead tends to lose money, spot lead is expected to fall 25 to 15950 to 16050 yuan / ton today.

Zinc: last Friday, the zinc continued to decline, within a day or observe the bringway lower rail support strength, or in the range of 2410 to 2460 US dollars / ton. Shanghai zinc jumped off the lower track of Bolin Road, KDJ indicators show that down, the market bearish mood is strong, two days in a row with a substantial increase in short positions, the follow-up market still has expectations for inventory increase, Shanghai zinc fundamentals no bright spots, stop falling kinetic energy still to be considered, within a day or run in 19250-19750 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic to 1907 contract liter water 80 to 120, double swallow liter water 120 to 160.

Nickel: today, it is expected to be supported by the lower 5-day EMA, with a range of US $12000-12300 / ton, Shanghai Ni 97500-99000 yuan / ton and spot 98000-100000 yuan / ton.

Tin: the lower support is expected to be near the previous platform high of $18800 / ton and the upper resistance near the 40-day moving average of $19400 / ton. It is estimated that the lower support of Shanghai tin is located in the early stage of the platform around 143500 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance is near the 20-day moving average of 144500 yuan / ton. In the spot market, Shanghai Tin Exchange closed at 144000 yuan per ton on Friday night, and the mainstream trading price is expected to be 143000 to 144,500 yuan per ton today.