6.24 minutes of SMM's internal aluminum morning meeting: the US dollar closed three times cloudy, hitting a low of 96.146 LME metals on Friday. LME closed at US $1768 per tonne on Friday, down US $14 from the previous day, with the majority of long positions. Shanghai Aluminium main 1908 closed at 13770 yuan / ton on Friday night, down 5 yuan / ton from the daytime closing price. Macro: last week, the central bank put in a net 355 billion yuan; Fed Kashkari said it would seek to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the FMOC meeting, and expected long-term inflation to be 1.7%. ECB President Draghi: the economic recovery is weaker than expected and may need to adopt loose fiscal policy this year and next; the US Markit manufacturing PMI and services PMI were both slightly lower than expected in June.
Fundamentals: on June 21, 2019, a furnace leakage accident occurred in an aluminum plant in Guangxi. The power outage lasted for a long time, affecting the output of 100 tons per day. Under the background that the consumption of aluminum profiles became weaker than the previous month, the processing fees of aluminum bars in many regions of China continued to fall. Henan Jiaozuo area carried out environmental protection and limited production for aluminum processing enterprises, and Henan Wanfang, the main supplier of electrolytic aluminum water, had to increase ingots. In May 2019, China exported 7536 tons of alumina and imported 60, 000 tons. Exports fell 91.6 percent year on year, and imports rose 134.9 percent year on year. Spot: on Friday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 13860 and 13880 yuan / ton, which was flat to 10 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton from the previous day. Traders and middlemen traded actively on that day, with more shippers. There was also a significant increase in the number of traders replenishing goods at low prices on that day, as prices fell on that day and there was a demand for stock downstream near the weekend, and the volume of shipments increased significantly over the previous few days. On the whole, East China has a better deal. Conclusion: the expected part of the fundamental pressure in the short period is digested by the falling aluminum price before. In the long period, we can try the view of long-term multiple orders in the light position layout by maintaining the main contract below 13800.