SMM, June 21 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-
The transition period of new energy subsidies will end next week, most of the main factories are in a wait-and-see situation, the pressure to reduce costs in the industry is still, or some models may face price increases. At the same time, the industry demand has been released ahead of time, and due to the recent frequent safety accidents of new energy vehicles, downstream demand is not good. Passenger cars are the main growth point of new energy vehicles at present, and the slowing growth rate will directly affect the demand for ternary batteries. In contrast, lithium iron phosphate batteries are increasing in the market share of special purpose vehicles. In addition, there is an energy storage market to help stabilize demand. Since late May, the cathode material factory has received the battery enterprise order reduction notice in June, the reduction plan is expected to continue into the third quarter, a leading battery enterprise has begun to officially enter the "high nickel + iron lithium" development route. SMM believes that cost reduction this year is still one of the important goals of the industry, how to balance the contradiction between cost and high-quality production capacity at this stage, mainframe factories have been looking for answers, which will continue to trigger the trend of mainframe factories to build their own battery plants.
In terms of consumer batteries, since the beginning of this year, cylindrical batteries have been forced to seek transformation while they have had to enter a low-cost melee. At present, the market quotation for the mainstream model 2500mAh of 18650 ranges from 4 to 7.5 yuan per piece, among which the competition in the electric bicycle market is fierce, and the average price has dropped to about 4 yuan per piece. Due to the impact of the reshuffle of the power market to some extent, the cylindrical battery market is expected to have the possibility of a decline in prices in the future. In contrast, the core participants and consumption scenarios of polymer battery market are more fixed and less affected.
Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: domestic metal cobalt spot and speculative disk market double downturn, big factory quotation is strong, but downstream wait-and-see mood is heavy, purchase is cautious, importer in order to promote transaction, no longer firm quotation. In terms of cobalt hydroxide, the profit space of the smelter is still insufficient, and the market expects that the future demand will not improve, the willingness to purchase intermediate goods is not good, and some cobalt hydroxide suppliers have loosened their quotations, but the quoted price is still farther than the psychological price of the buyer. It is expected that the price game will continue for a while, and the price center of gravity will continue to be revised down. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 23.30-248000 yuan / ton, which is 7000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The price of SMM cobalt hydroxide was $8.9 to $9.20 per pound, down $0.30 per pound from last week.
Cobalt salt and nickel salt: cobalt salt market is still pessimistic, although production cuts have occurred one after another, but demand contraction expectations, trading prices are still declining. SMM cobalt sulfate price is 3.90-41000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 4.5-47000 yuan / ton, the average price is 2000 yuan / ton lower than last week. The price of SMM nickel sulfate is 23500.00-26000.00 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Cobalt oxide: cobalt tetroxide prices fell, downstream demand is OK, but worried that the price of raw materials will continue to decline, only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, large companies down quotations to promote transactions. The current price of SMM cobalt oxide is 16.6-174000 yuan / ton, which is 4000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.
Ternary precursor (523 dynamic): ternary precursor price decline, downstream demand reduction is expected to be strong, some manufacturers reduce production to cope with the difficult situation. Downstream price pressure mentality is heavy, the market transaction price drops. The price of SMM ternary precursor (523) is 7.7-79000 yuan / ton, which is 2000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (622 type) is 8.30-85000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.
Lithium carbonate: lithium carbonate prices have fallen this week. The end of the subsidy slope transition period has a significant impact on the ternary cell and its upstream. Battery-grade lithium carbonate manufacturers said orders fell sharply in July from a month earlier and that scattered orders had been scarce recently. Industrial lithium carbonate suppliers also said that although most of the month in the implementation of orders at the beginning of the month, but feel that the market demand is not as good as before, prices are expected to fall in July. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate this week was 7.3-76000 yuan / ton, down 2000 yuan / ton from last week. This week, the price of zero-grade lithium carbonate in SMM industry was 6.5-68000 yuan / ton, down 1500 yuan / ton from last week.
Lithium hydroxide: battery grade lithium hydroxide prices continue to fall this week. Due to the end of the transition period of the subsidy retreat policy, some cathode material enterprises reflect that the demand for 6-series cathode materials is weakened, and turn to the adjustment of 5-series cathode materials, and then the demand for battery-grade lithium hydroxide is reduced. Lithium hydroxide manufacturers also said that domestic spot transactions are rare, in order to develop only Rio Tinto Japan and South Korea market. This week, the price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) is 8.3-86000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1500 yuan / ton lower than last week.
Lithium cobalt: the price of lithium cobalt has fallen. At present, it is a stable period of digital electronics consumption, coupled with strong expectations of a decline in raw material prices, battery factories have a flat willingness to increase positions of raw materials, and trading prices have fallen with the decline of raw material prices. The price of SMM4.35V lithium cobalt acid is 21-220000 yuan / ton, down 2000 yuan / ton from last week.
Ternary material: ternary material price decline, battery factory demand shrinkage, material factory urgent raw material inventory into finished product, price reduction promotion, SMM ternary material (523 type) price is 13.2-140000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM ternary material (622 type) is 14.8-155000 yuan / ton, the average price is 1000 yuan / ton lower than last week.
Lithium iron phosphate (power type): the price of lithium iron phosphate is flat this week. Compared with the ternary material market, the market performance of lithium iron phosphate, which has completed the industry reshuffle in 2018, is more stable. This week, the price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 4.7-52000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
Lithium manganate: lithium manganate traded smoothly this week, with prices falling slightly. Under the influence of the new policy of electric bicycle, the market demand of high-end volume lithium manganate is better. In summer, the demand for middle and low end volume lithium manganate used in traditional digital 3C industry is weakened. This week SMM lithium manganate (volume type) price is 3-39000 yuan / ton, the average price is down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week. This week SMM lithium manganate (dynamic) price is 47-50, 000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as last week.
The future forecast: the domestic consumer market is relatively stable in the third quarter, and the demand of the dynamic market is shrinking. Under the buyer's market, the price reduction pressure will gradually shift from the middle stream material factory to the upstream smelter, the mine end, SMM maintains the previous judgment, it is expected that the cobalt mine price will gradually decline in the future, the rising price of overseas high price smelting products will gradually disappear, and the prices of lithium mines and lithium smelting products still have room for further reduction.
SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team
Hu Yan 021 51666809
Hong Lu 021 51666814
Ning Ziwei 021 51666780
Qin Jingjing 021 51666828