[minutes of SMM Aluminum Internal Morning meeting] the fall of the US dollar, the rise of aluminum, the fall of aluminum prices in the internal market, the unilateral driving force of aluminum prices is relatively limited.

Published: Jun 21, 2019 09:53

Source: SMM

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Trading: the dollar fell overnight as the Federal Reserve signaled a rate cut.

6.21 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: due to the Federal Reserve interest rate cut signal overnight fall in the dollar, London aluminum fell, yesterday's closing price of aluminum closed at $1782 / ton, up $3 / ton from the previous day; most of the basic metals in the internal market fell, mainly due to the macro positive has been basically digested, the main closing price of Shanghai aluminum 1908 closed at 13835 yuan overnight, the decline in the basic metals is medium. Fundamentals: on Thursday, inventories of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumer areas across the country fell 37000 tons to 1.081 million tons a week, down significantly below peak season levels but remaining in storage; aluminum rod stocks fell 2200 tons a week. Real estate drove a number of profile consumption in the first half of the year, and real estate demand is still expected after September this year. In addition, profile factory feedback this year, greater financial pressure, downstream real estate developers account period lengthened. Electrolytic aluminum supply side: Xinjiang Shenhuo raised the price of aluminum water by 150 yuan / ton due to the rise in coal prices, resulting in a rise in the cost of downstream aluminum rod processing plants, which began to stop production in early May, a similar situation has occurred for the second time in Xinjiang.

Spot: yesterday afternoon in Shanghai market trading price concentrated in 13890 to 13910 yuan / ton, flat water to rise water 20 yuan / ton, led by a small amount of spot trading in the vicinity of 13920 yuan / ton. In the first trading stage of the afternoon, the market trading was active, the shippers were more than the recipients, the aluminum price in the second trading stage was low, and the transaction activity of middlemen and traders converged obviously. Downstream in the case of aluminum prices rose for two days, continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, still purchasing according to rigid demand. Summary: the unilateral driving force for the sustainability of short-term aluminum prices is relatively limited, and the fundamental pressure has been digested to a certain extent by falling aluminum prices, paying attention to the progress of Sino-US relations and changes in monetary policy at home and abroad. In the long term, we can try the view of more than one order in the long-term layout of light positions by maintaining the main contract below 13800.

Plate surface Shanghai aluminum aluminum price morning news output

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