[record of SMM lead internal morning meeting on June 21]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

The US president called Iran's "big mistake" in shooting down US drones and later played down Iran's move, saying it could have been done by a "hasty and stupid" man. Tensions in the Middle East pushed WTI crude to its biggest increase in six months.

The US president said on Thursday that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was expected to "eventually" cut interest rates, saying that "he should have done so earlier and eventually he would have done the right thing". The US index fell below 97 and the offshore renminbi rebounded to around 6.85.

Us economic data: first-time jobless claims fell by the most in five weeks last week, confirming that the labour market remains strong, but the manufacturing outlook is worrying, with the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index falling to a four-month low.

The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, acknowledged growing concerns about unagreed Brexit and increased downside risks to the economy, cutting its quarterly economic forecast to stagnation from 0.2 per cent growth.

When meeting with the DPRK leader in Pinglun, the Chinese President said that China supports the process of promoting the political settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue and is willing to play a "positive and constructive role" in realizing the denuclearization of the peninsula.

Fundamentals:

The lead rush in Shanghai has dropped, and at the same time, the supply of goods has flowed into the market after delivery, and the market supply has increased obviously. the quotation of the holder follows the market, and there is little discount quotation. Among them, in the south of the Shanghai market, the price of lead in the 1907 contract is 30 to 50 yuan per ton, the lead in Jinsha is quoted at 50 yuan per ton for the 1907 contract, and the discount for imported lead is 70 to 50 yuan per ton for the 1907 contract. Jijin, Wanyang and Shuangyan lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas quoted 30 to 50 yuan per ton of water for the 1907 contract, while the mainstream quotation for the bulk order of the original lead refinery posted 70 to 100 yuan per ton for SMM1# lead. In terms of recycled lead, the price of waste battery is still in a stalemate, and the price of reductive lead refinery is depressed. The average price of SMM1# lead is maintained by 100 yuan / ton factory, and the quotation of 200yuan / ton factory is affixed to the average price of recycled lead. At the same time, the downstream storage enterprises purchase on demand, but because of the obvious price advantage of recycled lead (maintaining the average price discount of SMM1 electrolytic lead 150 yuan / ton), the transaction situation of bulk single market is still not improved.

Lead price:

Lun lead in recent days more strong trend, the moving average gradually revised up, the recent concern about the trend of the dollar, and write off the warehouse receipt after the main action; Shanghai lead closed negative line for two days in a row, give back the increase at the beginning of the week, the overall trend is still mainly concussion;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to be flat to 50 yuan per ton today.