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[brief comment on SMM Hot Volume] the trend of regional arrival may be reduced in the later period of arrival.
Jun 19,2019 17:51CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

The overall resource arrival of hot rolled mainstream steel mills this week totaled 191000 tons, compared with 177000 tons + 14000 tons last week. The overall market arrival has increased, but the trend of arrival in the three mainstream markets is divided. Among them, the increment of the market is obvious. Mainly due to: first, vertical and horizontal and other additional investment of foreign resources, this week has basically reached the market; second, a few months ago, it is difficult to open the price gap between Shanghai and Lecong, resulting in low willingness of steel mills to put in the Lesong area. Coupled with the fact that the terminal demand has been weak since April, the ordering mood of traders has also been relatively low, so there has been a gradual shortage of spot specifications in the market since the middle and late May, affecting the procurement of the terminal market, in which case orders from steel mills have increased. In late May, although traders gradually resumed their orders and made up for the shortage specifications, due to the impact of the shipping cycle, spot resources arrived at the Legong market one after another this week; sub-market point of view: [Shanghai market] resources arrived this week 74000 tons, compared with last week 84000 tons-10000 tons. Although the arrival of goods has been reduced, but the overall market arrival pressure is still greater. Among them, the main resources are Yanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Benxi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., and Angang. [happy from the market] Resources arrived this week 101000 tons, compared with last week 76000 tons + 25000 tons, although the increase is obvious, but due to the early arrival of resources has been at a low level, so the current arrival of resources has not caused pressure on the market, in which the arrival of resources is mainly Yangang, Jianlong is mainly vertical and horizontal. [Tianjin Market] 16000 tons of resources arrived this week, compared with 17000 tons-1000 tons last week, the overall resources arrival is still less, no pressure on the market. Among them, the main resources are China Railway and Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.

Late arrival forecast: [Shanghai market] & [Lecong market] in the case of weak terminal rigid demand since April, due to the contraction of price difference, the arrival of goods in Shanghai continues to increase, resulting in a rapid decline in spot prices. And Le from the regional resources to goods is less, so the spot price is relatively strong, so the price gap between the two places gradually widened. In this case, steel mills gradually increase the delivery of goods to the market, so it is expected that the arrival of goods in the later period of the market will still have an increasing trend, while the arrival of goods in the later period of the Shanghai market may continue to decrease. [Tianjin Market] according to research feedback, there are still some resources in the mainstream markets this week, and it is expected that they will arrive in the market one after another next week. In addition, due to the strict environmental protection policy in Tangshan area, the steel mills in this area have been shut down and overhauled, so the later stage may have an impact on the hot rolling output in Tangshan area. On the other hand, the spot in Tianjin market is mainly based on Tangshan resources, so it is expected that the arrival of resources will still be less in the later period. [SMM Steel]

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