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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 19,2019 09:35CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 19th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: China and the United States G 20 confirmed the meeting, ECB President Draghi said that if the economic outlook does not improve, the central bank may need to increase stimulus measures, the dovish comments pushed up the ECB interest rate expectations, macro positive coming from the basic metals rebound across the board. The Fed, which will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon local time, is expected to stay put and focus on future easing clues. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:



Shanghai: after the decline of the monthly difference yesterday, the quotation has accelerated to fall, because the warehouse receipt has not flowed out yet, and the market circulation has not been significantly loosened. The market quotation continued yesterday afternoon and began to rise by 210 yuan / ton. Due to the obvious decline in the price, the long order purchase of traders is more active, and the transaction in the morning market is slightly active. The transaction is concentrated in the water rise of 200 yuan to 210 yuan / ton, or the average price is fluctuated by 10 to 15 yuan / ton, and the purchase at the lower reaches is also heating up. The overall market trading atmosphere is OK. However, the downstream procurement is still not active, mainly on the downstream consumer brand transactions are relatively general, imported SMC, Spain than domestic discount 50-flat water about, Shuangyan, Chihong than domestic water 20 to 30 yuan / ton, the transaction is relatively general. Overall market transactions were further warmer than yesterday. Guangdong: refinery normal shipment, the morning market for the quotation is more confused, most of the average price, or the average price-10, a small amount of long single demand contribution must be concluded. Enter the second trading period, the market for the follow-up warehouse receipt outflow consideration, there is no high price, quoted in the Shanghai zinc 1908 contract rising water 430450 yuan / ton, but the long single demand is saturated and the downstream replenishment warehouse is more yesterday, today to maintain rigid demand to buy, the overall transaction is flat. Tianjin: the plate continues to decline, refineries slightly cherish the sale, and the circulation of goods in the market has been reduced. The holder raised the price early in the morning and shipped the goods at a price of 250 to 350 yuan / ton for the 07 contract. In the downstream, the inquiry is more dominant, and the transaction is less. Some of the holders have once again lowered the water supply, but the downward range is relatively small. The quotation is concentrated around 210320 yuan / ton for the 07 contract. After the price adjustment, the market transaction situation has improved. However, due to the less circulation of ordinary brands in today's Tianjin market, the flow of high-priced brands such as Zijin is more, and the trading atmosphere in Tianjin is slightly warmer today. However, due to the less supply of goods, the overall volume is flat yesterday. Zinc price: good news stimulates market confidence, KDJ breaks through multiple technical suppression, stands on the whole digit, the current spot rise is still high, superimposed centralized warehouse day is coming, pay attention to the change of LME zinc inventory, Geneva zinc or integer shock waiting for guidance; overnight macro positive mood boost, Shanghai zinc broke through the 20-day EMA to suppress upward, KDJ index turn up, within the day to observe the 20-day EMA support strength. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2480-2530 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or run in the vicinity of 19950-20450 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic rose 200.

price forecast

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