SMM Morning Comments (Jun 19)

SHANGHAI, Jun 19 (SMM) –

Copper: Three-month LME copper rose 1.78% to close at $5,956/mt on Tuesday. The most active SHFE August contract opened higher and climbed to a high of 47,040 yuan/mt overnight before it closed 1.4% higher at 46,930 yuan/mt. Copper prices are expected to steady at highs today as the market works through US-China trade hopes and awaits results from the Fed meeting. LME copper is expected to trade between $5,890-5,960/mt today, with SHFE copper at 46,500-47,000 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen 20-60 yuan/mt as sharply higher prices of futures will spur selling enthusiasm.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium advanced 1.11% to end at $1,778/mt on Tuesday, just below the 20-day moving average. It is expected to test resistance at $1,800/mt today, and trade between $1,770-1,820/mt. The most traded SHFE August contract crept up 0.58% to close at 13,875 yuan/mt overnight. It is expected to extend its gains today, with a trading range of 13,800-14,100 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen up to 20 yuan/mt over the July contract.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc shrugged off resistance from several technical levels on Tuesday, gaining 1.6% to close at $2,513.5/mt. High cash premiums and the upcoming delivery date grow the risks of higher inventories. LME zinc is expected to hover around $2,500/mt today, with most transactions at $2,480-2,530/mt. The most active SHFE August contract broke the 20-day moving average to end at 20,200 yuan/mt overnight, up 1.3%, with the KDJ lines expanding upwards. SHFE zinc is expected to trade between 19,950-20,450 yuan/mt today, with support from the 20-day moving average under scrutiny.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel rose to a high of $12,050/mt on Tuesday before it ended the trading day 1.57% higher at $11,950/mt. The most traded SHFE August contract hit a high of 100,320 yuan/mt overnight before it closed 1.56% higher at 99,630 yuan/mt. LME nickel is expected to trade between $11,900-12,100/mt today, with its SHFE counterpart at 99,000-101,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 98,500-101,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: Three-month LME lead climbed to a high of $1,923/mt on Tuesday before it finished the trading day 1.81% higher at $1,916.5/mt. LME lead is likely to pull back after the market prices in the latest developments in US-China trade talks. The most active SHFE July contract rose to a high of 16,340 yuan/mt overnight before it ended 0.8% higher at 16,280 yuan/mt. SHFE lead has held firm at the current level for five consecutive sessions, and a substantial increase will help it begin an uptrend in the short term. Any retreat in SHFE lead will rekindle confidence in shorts.

Tin: Three-month LME tin rebounded from a low of $18,700/mt to close 1.59% higher at $19,205/mt on Tuesday. Support is seen at $18,500/mt, while resistance is at the 40-day moving average as high as $19,400/mt. The most traded SHFE September contract advanced 0.59% to end at 144,720 yuan/mt overnight. Support is seen at 143,500 yuan/mt while resistance is at the 40-day moving average as high as 145,500 yuan/mt.