SMM6 17: fundamentals: June is the transition period of zinc consumption from the peak season, and the supply is only 7500 tons, so the overall supply and demand is still tight. Although the inventory has been accumulated recently, it has been at a historical low since the beginning of the year, supporting the zinc price as a whole. According to a recent report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global zinc market had a supply gap of 36800 tons from January to February 2019, compared with a surplus of 71600 tons for the whole of last year. The supply gap is still there, which is too much to look at.
Capital side: the main net long position, more reduction. Too many.
Technical side: from May 9 to May 9, the quantitative hedge system has been divided into seven batches of multiple orders between 1930 and 20500 points. Too many.
Basis: spot price 2200, futures price 19965, basis 1335 (6.19). Too many.
Inventory: as of June 14, 2019, refined zinc stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 79945 tons, an increase of 19241 tons over the previous week. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years. As of June 14, 2019, LME zinc stocks stood at 100625 tons, a decrease of 1475 tons from the previous trading day, accounting for 38.24 per cent of write-off warehouse receipts. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years.
Conclusion: the overall supply is tight and the inventory is at a historically low level. However, in view of the constant macro risk, if it falls below the previous low of 19610, the stop loss is out.
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