[minutes of internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum] ADC12 price of recycled aluminum still has room to fall at the cost of upside down.

6.17 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Trading: the dollar index rose sharply on Friday, hitting a high of 97.587 LME metals, mixed. On Friday, Lun Aluminum closed at $1758, down $6.50, or 0.37%. The main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 13855 yuan / ton, down 55 yuan or 0.4% from the day closing price, and its position increased by 3132 hands, mainly to increase short positions.

Macro: the monthly rate of US retail sales in May was 0.5%, basically reaching expectations and exceeding the previous value, resulting in a sharp rise in the US dollar and pressing metals; the National Housing Prosperity Index (referred to as the "National Housing Prosperity Index") in May was 100.85, down 0.07 points from April. Fundamentals: SMM alumina prices last week fell by a total of nearly 50 yuan / ton, cost-side support weakened, and there is still room for further decline; consumption margin weakened, June, July, August belongs to the traditional consumption off-season, consumption recovery may have to wait until September; At present, the price of recycled aluminum ADC12 is lower than that of primary electrolytic aluminum, forming inverted hanging, mainly because the consumption of traditional cars is poor and the consumption of renewable aluminum by new energy vehicles is reduced. In addition, overseas ADC12 prices and electrolytic aluminum prices have been linked upside down for a long time.

Spot: before 11:00 on Friday, the trading price of Wuxi in Shanghai was concentrated between 13960 yuan / ton and 13970 yuan / ton, and the price fell by nearly 80 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the holder maintained an active shipping rhythm. Downstream due to the near weekend inventory superimposed aluminum price fell, receiving the goods actively, the overall transaction is better. Overall, the deal was better last Monday and Friday. Conclusion: under the background that the long-term alumina price is empty and the consumption is gradually weakening, the aluminum price shock is weak, but it is expected to continue to go to the warehouse, this round of Shanghai aluminum decline space is limited, below pay attention to 13800 yuan / ton gate support.

(SMM Liang Xuan)