[medium-term trend quantitative Strategy] Wu Anjun: consumption off-season is coming, Shanghai Aluminum will accelerate its decline (6.17)

Fundamentals: Shanghai aluminium is expected to have a surplus of 700000 tons in 2019. With the advent of the off-season of consumption and hot weather and other reasons, the decline in the trading of waste aluminum market is difficult to improve in the short term, and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the downstream has a direct impact on the prices of manufacturers. Waste aluminum will not improve this week, or will enter an accelerated decline stage. It's empty.

Capital side: the main net short position, short increase. It's empty.

Technical side: the medium-term trend quantification system sent a short signal at 14310 o'clock on May 28. It's empty.

Basis: spot price 13980, futures price 13920, basis 60 (0.43). Neutral.

Cost: about 13000.

Inventory: as of June 14, 2019, electrolytic aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 451050 tons, down 25567 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal point of view, current inventories remain at an average level compared with the last five years. As of June 14, 2019, LME aluminium stocks stood at 1064625 tons, a decrease of 11125 tons from the previous trading day, accounting for 35.98 per cent of write-off warehouse receipts. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years.

Conclusion: the consumption off-season is approaching, or will enter the accelerated decline stage, therefore every high short. Focus on 13000 points of support.

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Wu Anjun brief introduction: good at colored, black and other futures varieties, with the combination of fundamentals and quantitative technology interpretation, and provide operational guidance. Wu Anjun focused on quantitative research for the whole decade, developed a number of quantitative hedge systems and participated in the national futures competition to achieve steady profits. Good at finding the correct medium-and long-term multi-empty direction from the fundamentals of each variety, using the quantitative model to carry on the whole procedure transaction. On the basis of accurately grasping the general trend of the market, more accurately capture the entry point and exit point, often double or several times the profit effect.

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