[minutes of SMM aluminum internal morning meeting] Aluminum price shock weakens electrolytic aluminum storage has narrowed but will continue

6.14 minutes of SMM's internal aluminum morning meeting: yesterday, Lun Aluminum opened high and low, closing at US $1786, down US $0.50, or 0.03%. Overnight Shanghai Aluminium main force 1908 fell to 13910 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan, or 0.32%.

Macro: yesterday, the United States announced the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week 222000, lower than expected to show that the U. S. job market is weak.

Fundamentals: on Thursday, aluminum ingot stocks fell 30, 000 tons to 1.118 million tons, mainly from eastern China, while Gongyi stocks increased by 15000 tons, a decline that converged. The inventory of aluminum bars increased by 18000 tons to 73900 tons. At present, the processing fees of aluminum bars vary greatly between regions. Nanchang is about 300 yuan lower than the processing fee plus aluminum price in Guangdong, or the opportunity of cross-regional arbitrage.

Spot: the transaction price of Wuxi in Shanghai is between 14020 and 14050 yuan / ton, the rising water of the plate is 10 to 20 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of Hangzhou is between 14060 and 14080 yuan / ton. Although the traders made an active return offer to each other, they compared the prices with each other, and the actual transaction was average. There are not many goods received downstream, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is not high.

Conclusion: under the background that the long-term alumina price is empty and the consumption is gradually weakening, the aluminum price shock is weak, but it is expected to continue to go to the warehouse, this round of Shanghai aluminum decline space is limited, below pay attention to 13800 yuan / ton gate support.