[record of SMM lead internal morning meeting on 14 June]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that in the absence of direct evidence, the United States accused Iran of being responsible for the attack on oil tankers near the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Iran denied that the market was worried about the possibility of a conflict between the United States and Iraq.

First-time jobless claims in the US rose to a five-week high, beating economists' expectations, increasing signs that the labour market could cool and bolstering expectations that the Fed could turn to doves.

OPEC warned that the tense trade situation is weakening global oil demand, cut its forecast for oil demand earlier this year, and expects further challenges ahead.

Officials from the China Banking Regulatory Commission said they would "soon" increase the weight of venture capital for small and micro enterprises to 10 million yuan.

Our industrial, retail and investment data for May will be released today.

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead continued weak shock, the holder has reduced the rising water one after another, among them, the Shanghai market Muron lead to 1907 contract 30 yuan / ton to flat water quotation, southern lead to 1906 contract water 20 to 40 yuan / ton quotation, Jinsha lead to 1907 contract water 50 yuan / ton quotation, and the primary lead refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price 50 to 30 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, the market supply of reduced lead remains relatively loose, especially in Jiangxi, Henan and other areas, the mainstream transaction price of tax-bearing recycled lead is maintained at 100RMB / t of SMM1# lead average price; at the same time, large storage enterprises are mainly based on long single purchase, bulk single receiving is not high, market trading is light.

Lead price:

Lun lead continues the pattern of high consolidation, the support of the lower 5-day EMA still exists, and the direction of short-term attention is selected. Shanghai lead recently fluctuated in a narrow range near the first line of 16050 yuan, and the volatility gradually narrowed, so we still need to be cautious about the risk of lead breaking down in Shanghai in the short term.

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to fall by 50 to 75 yuan per ton today.