SMM News: June 11, passenger car market information joint meeting released data show that in May domestic narrow passenger car (car + SUV+MPV) retail 1.582 million units, down 12.5% from the same period last year, compared with the January-April 2019 cumulative year-on-year decline of-11.9% is basically the same; In terms of broad passenger cars (cars + SUV+MPV+ microcars), retail sales in May were 1.61 million, down 12.5% from a year earlier, the 12th consecutive month of year-on-year decline.
Judging from the domestic retail data of consumer goods, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by only 9% in 2018 compared with the same period last year, the lowest since 2000. Among the itemized data, the biggest drag is car sales. In 2018, car consumption fell 2.4% from a year earlier, falling into negative growth for the first time since records.
So what is the reason for the downturn in the car market? On June 6, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment, and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a circular on the issuance of the implementation Plan for promoting the Renewal and upgrading of key Consumer goods (2019-2020). From a macro point of view, we will guide the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, clearly and resolutely remove obstacles to the consumption of passenger vehicles, and speed up the shift from purchase restrictions to guided use. Can the stimulus of such policies quickly improve the weak car market in the short term?
In China, there are a variety of factors that determine residents' purchase of cars, such as car price, disposable income, car cost, parking problem, consumption cycle, and even the so-called "face" problem, and so on. These factors play a comprehensive role in determining the habits of Chinese residents in car consumption. However, it is obviously unconvincing to study this issue only from the perspective of China, because society is constantly improving and changing, so let's first take a look at the stones of Japan, a big car country.
According to the existing literature, the development of Japanese automobile market can be divided into four stages: the rapid growth period from 1960 to 1974, the stable growth period from 1974 to 1992, the low speed growth period from 1992 to 2000, and the mature period from 2000 to now.
The characteristic of the high-speed growth period is that the new car sales and car ownership have increased by more than 10%, and the car began to popularize in the society; in the stable growth period, the growth rate of new car sales and ownership has dropped to the single digits, the car consumption has changed to family purchase and additional purchase demand, the second-hand car market has flourished and the sales volume has exceeded the new car; the low-speed growth period is characterized by the saturation of the new car market and the continued slight growth of car ownership.
Well, let's compare the current situation in China: at present, the growth rate of passenger car sales has dropped to a negative value compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate of civilian and private car ownership is still in the range of more than 10%, but the growth rate has continued to decline. If it is divided according to the development stage of Japanese automobile market, China's automobile market should be in the transitional stage between stable and low speed growth period, and will soon enter the low speed growth period.
Similarly, year-on-year growth in retail car sales in Japan was negative for 12 months between February 1991 and January 1992, followed by an average year-on-year growth rate of about 1.3 per cent between 1992 and 1997 during the Asian financial crisis. If you simply compare to Japan, China's car sales growth will also slow to a lower level and stable for a long time, during which there will be irregular fluctuations with the car life cycle.
There are many reasons for this stable and low growth.
From the long-term fundamentals, first, with the economic development and the growth of disposable income, cars have been popularized in the whole society, and the consumption of the first car based on the rigid demand of family travel has been basically completed. Second, car consumption is mainly transformed into improved demand for household upgrading and purchase, but the elasticity of improved demand is greater, such as buying houses and other bulk transactions to improve vehicle consumption is very obvious, and the growth rate of disposable income is also slowing. Third, the impact of the population cycle and the addition of working age will also affect the growth of car consumption. Fourth, the domestic infrastructure related to the use of cars is not perfect, but also caused a greater negative drag on residents' car consumption, such as parking problems, congestion problems, new energy vehicle charging problems, have increased the purchase anxiety of residents.
In the short term, the early implementation of the sixth National Standard, the mileage limitation of new energy vehicles, the scarcity of charging piles and the purchase restriction policy in areas with strong consumption capacity have all affected the improvement of automobile sales. Also important, data from both the United States and Japan show that car sales in both countries fell at a cliff during the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, and then gradually recovered. Under the impact of trade frictions, the expectations of some export-oriented enterprises have been lowered, which has also affected the sales of cars to a certain extent.
So can the new implementation Plan for promoting the Renewal and upgrading of key Consumer goods (2019-2020) jointly issued by the three ministries change the plight of domestic car sales in the short term? The author believes that the effect of temporary improvement will not be very significant. First of all, for the vast majority of unlimited areas, the demand for new energy vehicles is not very strong, the main factor affecting the purchase of cars is car price / disposable income, it is clear that the new policy can not significantly change this ratio.
Second, the new policy requires local governments not to introduce new purchase restrictions, but cities with relatively large demand for cars, such as Shanghai and Beijing, have yet to respond, such as Beijing's requirement to limit the number of motor vehicles to no more than 6.3 million in 2020. even if the new policy advocates new energy vehicle consumption, there is less room for improvement under the original framework, and the boost to the overall Chinese car market is limited.
Therefore, under the premise that there is no revolutionary improvement in engine technology and charging technology, the gradual slowdown of the growth rate of China's car market is a high probability event. Despite China's large population base, the role of demographic factors in car sales has been significantly weakened with the income structure unchanged.
Referring to the development process of developed countries, after the stock of cars is saturated, the development of used car market and automobile rear market (modification service, maintenance, auto parts sales) is the key area of automobile related consumption, especially the large number of cars in China. The future development prospect is more worth looking forward to.
In fact, as early as the end of January 2019, ten ministries, such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Commerce, jointly issued the implementation Plan for further optimizing supply, promoting steady growth in consumption and promoting the formation of a strong domestic Market (2019). Among them, promoting automobile consumption is the most important measure, and six specific requirements are put forward, which are as follows: promoting the scrapping and updating of old cars in an orderly manner; continuously optimizing the subsidy structure of new energy vehicles; promoting the upgrading of rural vehicles; steadily relaxing the restrictions on the entry of pick-up trucks into cities; speeding up the prosperity of the used car market; and further optimizing the motor vehicle management measures of the local government. It can be seen that the national level has long been aware of the development direction and space of automobile consumption. Next, it is necessary to guide the construction of relevant industries to advance in an orderly manner, guide the active participation of social capital, and promote the upgrading of automobile consumption from many aspects.
"[investment must see] Trade friction news flying all over the metal how to win in chaos?
"Click to enter the registration page
Scan QR code and apply to join SMM metal exchange group, please indicate company + name + main business