6.13 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: overnight inside and outside the aluminum trend is strong: overnight Shanghai aluminum rose 60 yuan or 0.43 per cent to close at 14040 yuan / ton; London aluminum rose 8.50 or 0.48 per cent to close at $1786.5.
Macro: the United States adjusted the annual rate of CPI at the end of May at an annual rate of 1.8%, lower than the expected and previous value, and the monthly rate was in line with expectations; China's CPI rose to 2.7% in May, which was 0.6% higher than the previous year; the new RMB loan in May was 1.18 trillion higher than expected, lower than the previous value; M2 increased 8.5% from the same period last year, lower than the expected value; the social and financial stock in May increased by 10.6% from the same period last year, with an increase of 1.4 trillion yuan, lower than the expected higher than the previous value. CAAC passenger car sales fell 17.4% in May compared with the same period last year, car sales increased by 1.8% compared with the same period last year, and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 1.8%. On the 11th, the chairman of Chinalco Group visited Xiongan New District and said that he had registered and established Chinalco Environmental Protection and Energy Saving Group Co., Ltd., focusing on the development of new materials.
Fundamentals: due to the environmental requirements of the local government in Jiaozuo, Henan Province, Wanfang Aluminum will supply aluminum water to downstream aluminum rod manufacturers from June to the end of September (stop supply from 8 to 20:00 every day), which will affect seven aluminum rod production lines downstream, reducing the output of aluminum rods by about 300 tons a day. During the peak consumption season of aluminum rods, the local aluminum rod processing plant may push up the price. While Wanfang electrolytic aluminum production is not affected; in addition, SMM investigation learned that the current electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang basic capital preservation, slightly profitable, in the current aluminum prices, new and resumed electrolytic aluminum production capacity is less willing to put into production.
Spot: yesterday, the transaction price in Shanghai was between 14050 and 14070 yuan / ton, and the rising water on the plate was 10 to 20 yuan / ton. Due to the fact that the rising water was not reduced near delivery, the shippers shipped more, while the recipients were less. The market circulation source was too sufficient, the downstream receiving mood was not high today, and the purchase was mainly on demand.
Conclusion: under the background that the long-term alumina price is empty and the consumption is gradually weakening, the aluminum price shock is weak, but it is expected that the storage will continue, and the space for Shanghai aluminum to fall is limited.