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[record of SMM lead internal morning meeting on 13 June]
Jun 13,2019 09:27CST
translation
Source:SMM
Lun lead still maintains a stable upward trend, but the pressure of the 60-day moving average above is greater, the breakthrough needs to cooperate with the trading volume, otherwise the short-term is still dominated by concussion. Shanghai lead received short support near the 10-day moving average, but yesterday the short came menacingly, today focused on the strength of the gate support; today, SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat to 25 yuan / ton.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the US CPI rose 1.8% in May from a year earlier, expected 1.9%, the previous value of 2%, lower than expected, the cooling of core inflation increased the reason for the Fed to cut interest rates;

China's financial data for May: the increase in the scale of social finance is 1.4 trillion yuan, estimated to be 1.41 trillion yuan, and the previous value is 1.36 trillion yuan. The structure of social financial growth rate has been repaired, and the non-standard drag has been significantly reduced. The overall growth rate will continue to be in the rising channel from June to September, gradually reaching 11%. Money supply M2 increased 8.5% year on year, forecast 8.6%, the previous value 8.5%, flat last month; The new RMB loan is 1.18 trillion yuan, estimated to be 1.3 trillion yuan, the previous value is 1.02 trillion yuan, the total amount of credit and structure improved slightly from last month, overall better than last month, but still hidden crisis;

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer price (CPI) rose 2.7 percent in May from a year earlier to a 15-month high. CPI has continued to rise since February, but it has remained within the range of moderate increases, and prices will continue to rise moderately. It is unlikely that prices will continue to rise moderately. "break 3" is unlikely, but later we have to be careful of the pressure brought about by the rise in pork prices. Inflation risks are generally controllable and average from January to May. Consumer prices across the country rose 2.2 percent over the same period last year; In May, the factory price of the national industrial producer (PPI) rose 0.6% from the same period last year, and 0.2% from the previous month. From January to May, the factory price of industrial producers rose 0.4% compared with the same period last year.

China's passenger car sales in May were 1.56 million, down 17.4 percent from a year earlier; passenger car production was 1.4914 million, down 10.18 percent from the previous month and down 23.69 percent from a year earlier; car sales in China in May were 1.91 million, down 16.4 percent from a year earlier, and car production was 1.8483 million, down 9.93 percent from a month earlier, down 21.16 percent from a year earlier, according to the China Automobile Association.

Fundamentals:

The Shanghai lead is weak, the holder quotation follows the market, among them, the Shanghai market Mu Lun lead pastes 20 yuan / ton to the flat water quotation to the 1907 contract, the southern lead to the 1906 contract water 50 60 yuan / ton quotation, the Jinsha lead to the 1907 contract water 50 yuan / ton quotation, and the original lead refinery bulk order mainstream quotation to the SMM1# lead average price 50 to 30 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, the market supply of reduced lead is looser than that in the previous period, but because the consumption of refined lead has not improved obviously, the refined lead factory still maintains the purchase on demand, and the mainstream quotation of regenerated refined lead maintains the average price of 150 yuan to 100 yuan / ton of SMM1# electrolytic lead. However, the demand of the battery market is low, coupled with the renewable refined lead to maintain discount shipment (150 to 100 yuan / ton quotation for SMM electrolytic lead), part of the downstream although there is an inquiry, but there is a big difference between the buyer and the seller, and there are few transactions in the bulk market.

Lead price:

Lun lead still maintains a stable upward trend, but the pressure of the 60-day moving average above is greater, the breakthrough needs to cooperate with the trading volume, otherwise the short-term is still dominated by concussion. Shanghai lead near the 10-day moving average received short support, but yesterday the short came menacingly, today pay attention to the level of support;

SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat to 25 yuan per ton today.

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