[minutes of internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum] Alumina price reduction superimposed consumption weakens, but going to the warehouse will continue

6.12 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: overnight Shanghai aluminum movement is insufficient, closing at 14035 yuan / ton, unchanged from the daytime closing price; overnight aluminum fell back to close at the inverted hammer line, closing price at US $1778, up US $1 or 0.06% from the previous day. Macro: China's local bond issuance exceeds 200 million yuan, and the industry expects to basically complete the hairstyle task by the end of September, and the rebound in infrastructure will increase confidence.

Fundamentals: the transaction price of cost end alumina in Lianyungang area has been reduced by about 60 yuan, and the price of FOB in Australia has been reduced by about US $15. There is basically no alumina output in June, but it is expected that Shandong and Chongqing Bochuang, Bosai Shuijiang and other re-production projects will continue to contribute to the new output. At the same time, the overhaul of Huayin in Guangxi has been completed, and Xinghua Science and Technology has gradually returned to full production. Aluminum Huaxing, Chinalco mining industry, Guangxi Xinfa, Sanmenxia hope and other alumina plant operation capacity have rebounded; Bauxite: according to SMM in June Guangxi environmental supervision and inspection is very strict, there are crushing plants and private mines closed, local ore prices are showing signs of rising; consumer side: consumption is expected to weaken in June, but according to the current processing industry orders, weakening efforts are not great.

Spot: yesterday's Shanghai spot transaction price was between 14050 and 14070 yuan / ton, and the trading price was up 10 to 20 yuan / ton. The transaction price was nearly 50 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday. Yesterday, the receipt in East China was average, and the inquiry between buyers and sellers was active. The actual transaction was slightly deadlocked. Due to the rise in prices, the willingness to receive goods downstream is not strong, the overall transaction in East China is general. Conclusion: under the background that the long-term alumina price is empty and the consumption is gradually weakening, the aluminum price shock is weak, but it is expected that the storage will continue, and the space for Shanghai aluminum to fall is limited.