SMM News: from the "first year of luxury housing" four years ago to the "era of limited competition" in the past year, from the comprehensive high-end price of new housing to the big price reduction of second-hand housing. In recent years, the ups and downs of the Beijing property market, the achievement of a number of "northward" private housing enterprises, but also forced some developers to withdraw from Beijing.
Between advance and retreat, the test is the adaptability of developers to policy regulation and their own product innovation, cost control and other capabilities. In the current market full of a large number of limited competition, in order to find an effective customer base and speed up the speed of removal, developers do not hesitate to pay channel fees to pull into the intermediary channel, play online and offline all kinds of rubber marketing combination, but most projects are still difficult to change the unsalable situation.
In a long-term follow-up investigation interview, the reporter learned that the first batch of limited housing projects in the market last year, after the original expectations of "big sales" failed, immediately launched a price reduction promotion strategy, did not expect and did not have much effect. More than a year later, the overall removal rate of some projects is still hovering around 30%, while the remaining 70% has almost all been converted to inventory overstocking. The supply area is concentrated, the customers are more hesitant, and the competition is difficult to sell. This is the survival status of most of the real estate after the first anniversary of the entry of competitive housing into the market.
Nearly 35000 units a year to enter the market
In the past year, the reporter visited many limited competitive housing developments. In the process of stepping on the project, our reporter found that the supply of limited competitive housing is mainly along the sixth Ring Road, and there is also a larger layout between the Fifth Ring Road and the sixth Ring Road. Daxing District, Fengtai District and Fangshan District have a higher number of restricted houses entering the market, and the supply is more concentrated.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, from June 10, 2018 to June 10, 2019, Beijing new housing market entered the market a total of 50 limited housing projects, a total of 75, the number of residential units reached 34559.
In addition, according to Zhuge housing statistics, 2017 to 2018 is the peak of land transactions in Beijing, this year there will still be a large number of limited access to the market. In 2017, there were 44 limited residential land in Beijing, accounting for 67% of the total residential land, and 41 in 2018, accounting for 80% of the total residential land.
It is not difficult to see that in the past two years, the peak supply of limited land supply in the Beijing market has gradually pushed up the number of housing sources, and a large number of limited housing listings are expected this year. As Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, shows, the number of restricted houses entering the market in 2019 is expected to exceed 60,000 units.
Guo Yi, chief analyst at Heshuo, has also said that in the past two years, while increasing land supply, Beijing has also limited prices and products. The location, type and total price of residential products are similar, resulting in a large area of unsalable limited houses. Housing enterprises have to cut prices further when prices have been limited, thus breaking their arms to survive.
Guo Yi said that housing enterprises carrying 7.48 million square meters of inventory are like thorns on their backs, with a total land transfer fee of 175.3 billion yuan for only nearly 50 unlisted plots, and a market value of more than 400 billion yuan for 7.48 million square meters of limited competitive housing stock. the static deactivation cycle is as long as 82 months.
Nearly 70% of the limit of competitive housing into inventory overstocking
Market value exceeds 400 billion yuan limit competitive housing inventory market, the real removal rate is in the end how much?
According to the statistical data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, starting from June 10, 2018, as of June 10, 2019, the total number of net visa sets in Beijing is 11976, accounting for 35% of the total supply; the net visa area is 1.25 million square meters, according to the area calculation, the net visa completion rate is only 31%; the average net visa price is 48693 yuan per square meter, and the total net visa amount is 61 billion yuan. This means that nearly 70% of the limited housing has not yet signed up for sale, has become a backlog of inventory.
According to Zhang Dawei, taking into account the lag of the net visa, the actual sales removal rate may reach more than 40 per cent, but it still does not change the current situation that more than 22000 units of competitive housing have become a backlog of inventory. Moreover, there are a large number of non-market projects, the sales situation is still worrying.
"some limited housing projects have a high check-out rate, even as many as dozens of units." A housing enterprise executives revealed to reporters that there is the possibility of changes without the completion of the online visa.
According to Zhuge housing statistics, Beijing is different in the level of limited housing, Fengtai limited housing projects are mostly located in the Fifth Ring Road, the location of good buyers pay high attention, the removal rate is 52%, the performance is better than other areas, followed by Changping District removal rate of 48%.
It is worth mentioning that, according to Zhuge housing statistics show that so far, Beijing suburbs into the city a total of seven limited housing projects, five removal rates are less than 10%, 3 or even less than 2%. In addition, Mentougou District limited competitive housing project into the market, the project for the Jindi Group, power construction real estate and other developers jointly developed Huazi Xishan, a total of 37 sets, transaction area of 3315 square meters, transaction average price of 48963 yuan / square meter, transaction amount of 162 million yuan, removal rate of only 6.36%.
Zhuge housing analysts believe that the far suburbs are far from the main urban area of Beijing, supporting facilities are not perfect, although the price of limited competition projects is relatively low, but it is still difficult to attract buyers, resulting in poor deactivation of various projects. There is no doubt that these projects are in a "de-chemical crisis" and it is not yet known when the lock-up will be lifted.