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[medium-term trend Quantification Strategy] Wu Anjun: metal Investment Strategy (6.10-6.14)
Jun 10,2019 16:44CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: medium-term trend is long, there is no opening signal

Fundamentals: maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. Neutral.

Capital side: the main position is net empty, empty is reduced. It's empty.

Technical aspect: the quantitative hedge system has no opening signal for the time being.

Basis: spot price 46120, futures price 46050, basis 70 (0.15). Neutral.

Inventory: as of June 06, 2019, the cathode copper stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 145626 tons, a surplus of 145626 tons over the previous week. From a seasonal point of view, current inventories remain at an average level compared with the last five years. As of 06 June 2019, LME copper stocks stood at 211650 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous trading day, accounting for 8.62 per cent of write-off warehouse receipts. From a seasonal point of view, current inventories remain at an average level compared with the last five years. Neutral.

Conclusion: it is expected that copper supply and demand will be in a state of tight balance and inventory will be at a historically low level in 2019. The operating range of copper prices this year is estimated to be between 46000 and 52000 yuan / ton. At present, the range is wide and volatile, and the trend band is mainly on the sidelines for the time being.

Aluminum: medium-term trend short, there is already a signal to open the warehouse

Fundamentals: Qinghai Baihe Aluminum began to resume production in April, Weiqiao Aluminum Industry has announced a plan to resume production in May 540000 tons, in addition, Guangxi Suyuan, Debao 100 mines and other land production or increase production. The increase in the supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be about 1.2 million tons in 2019, and the rate of increase in supply will rise to about 3.4 per cent. Downward pressure is still high. Shanghai aluminium is expected to have a surplus of 700000 tons in 2019.

Capital side: the main net short position, short increase. It's empty.

Technical side: the quantitative system sends a short signal at 13950 o'clock on June 10. It's empty.

Basis: spot price 14070, futures price 14010, basis 60 (0.43). Neutral.

Inventory: as of June 06, 2019, electrolytic aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 476617 tons, down 30736 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal point of view, current inventories remain at an average level compared with the last five years. As of 06 June 2019, LME aluminium stocks stood at 1114125 tons, a decrease of 5225 tons from the previous trading day, accounting for 36.38 per cent of write-off warehouse receipts. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years.

Conclusion: every height is short.

Zinc: medium-term trend is long, there is no opening signal

Fundamentals: zinc prices are expected to fall under expectations of a return to production, but a recent report by (WBMS), the World Bureau of Metals Statistics, said the global zinc market had a supply shortfall of 36800 tons from January to February 2019, compared with a glut of 71600 tons for the whole of last year. Neutral treatment.

Capital side: the main net long position, more reduction. Too many.

Technical side: quantitative hedge system has empty single signal has stopped profit. Too many.

Basis: spot price 21350, futures price 19990, basis 1360 (6.8). Too many.

Inventory: as of June 06, 2019, refined zinc stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 60704 tons, an increase of 1353 tons over the previous week. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years. As of 06 June 2019, LME zinc stocks stood at 99525 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from the previous trading day, accounting for 40.74 per cent of write-off warehouse receipts. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years. Too many.

Conclusion: the original space single signal has stopped, and the trend has to wait.

Lead: medium-term trend is long, there is no opening signal

Fundamentals: global refined lead is expected to be short of 125000 tons this year and 45000 tons in 2018, according to data released by the international lead and zinc research group (ILZSG). Recently, lead prices have bottomed out, and the enthusiasm of shippers has increased. But there is a lack of good news in the near future, waiting for multiple single signals of the trend.

Capital side: the main position increased, on the side of more.

Technical side: the empty sheet of the quantitative system has stopped. Neutral

Basis: spot price 16175, futures price 16065, basis 110 (0.68). Neutral

Inventory: as of June 06, 2019, refined lead stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 29491 tons, down 1191 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years. As of 06 June 2019, LME lead stocks stood at 66550 tons, a decrease of 1325 tons from the previous trading day, accounting for 8.41 per cent of write-off warehouse receipts. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventory has been maintained at a low level compared with the past five years.

Conclusion: neutral treatment, waiting for multi-party signal to appear.

Nickel: medium-term trend is long, but no opening signal

Fundamentals: the current nickel price is strongly supported, but from the stainless steel inventory point of view downstream consumption is still not good. Affected by the Indonesian violence, although prices rushed up for a day, but after all, it has not become a hot spot of speculation. At present, there is a dilemma between the top and the bottom, and wait and see.

Capital side: the main position is short, empty increase. It's empty.

Technical side: the empty sheet of the quantitative system has stopped. Neutral.

Basis: spot price is 95975, futures price is 95360, basis difference is 615 (0.64). Neutral.

Stocks: 11101 tons in the previous period, an increase of 1163 tons; LME was 163968 tons. From a seasonal point of view, the current inventories of the two exchanges have remained low compared with the past five years. Too many.

Conclusion: wait and see, wait for upward or downward breakthrough before making a decision.

Iron ore: medium-term trend short, no opening signal

Fundamentals: affected by the mining disaster port prices rose sharply, and it is difficult to resume production in the short term. Too many.

Capital side: the net position of the main force is more, more than increase. Too many.

Technical side: quantitative hedge system holding multi-position has stopped profit. Neutral.

Basis: spot price 757, futures price 707, basis 50 (7.07). Neutral

Inventory: Port inventory of 123.98 million tons, down 3.7 million tons from the previous month, down 36.42 million tons from the same period last year. Too many.

Conclusion: in the early stage, more than one single has stopped profit, now high shock, wait-and-see.

Rebar: medium-term trend short, no open signal

Fundamentals: the actual output of rebar continues to maintain its high level in the past four years. Demand began to weaken last week and the steel market will enter the off-season in June. Steel mill profits have shrunk recently. At present, rebar is still high price, high output, high profit, and downstream demand will enter the off-season. It's empty.

Capital side: recent multi-party reduction of positions, short side to increase positions. It's empty.

Technical side: Wu Anjun quantitative hedge trading system has no opening signal. Neutral.

Basis: spot price 3950, futures price 3713, basis 237 (6.38). Neutral

Inventory: 5.5247 million tons in 35 major cities across the country, down 3.05 percent from the previous month, an increase of 4.42 percent over the same period last year. It's empty.

Conclusion: at present, the rebar is of high price, high output and high profit. With the decline of high demand, it may accelerate into the stage of unilateral correction, so it should be short on the high side.

Hot roll: medium-term trend short, there is already a signal to open the warehouse

Fundamentals: due to Tangshan production restrictions do not meet expectations and other factors, hot coil production remained high, demand for the overall consumption of seasonal weakness, car sales continued to decline compared with the same period last year, excavator sales growth rate has also declined. It's empty.

Capital side: the main position empty increase. It's empty.

Technical side: the quantitative system was empty at 3570 o'clock on June 10. It's empty.

Basis: hot coil spot price 3870, basis 263, spot futures. Too many.

Inventory: 2.0882 million tons in 33 major cities across the country, an increase of 1.72 percent over the previous month and an increase of 7.29 percent over the same period last year. It's empty.

Conclusion: last week, the hot volume futures prices maintained a narrow range of volatility, the overall weak, downstream demand structural weakness, the lack of rise-driven, the overall market atmosphere is still relatively bearish.

Wu Anjun brief introduction: good at colored, black and other futures varieties, with the combination of fundamentals and quantitative technology interpretation, and provide operational guidance.

Wu Anjun focused on quantitative research for the whole decade, developed a number of quantitative hedge systems and participated in the national futures competition to achieve steady profits. Good at finding the correct medium-and long-term multi-empty direction from the fundamentals of each variety, using the quantitative model to carry on the whole procedure transaction. On the basis of accurately grasping the general trend of the market, more accurately capture the entry point and exit point, often double or several times the profit effect.

Statement: Wu Anjun's point of view is shared with you and does not constitute investment advice for you. Operate accordingly, at your own risk! If you need major investment advice for other varieties, please call.

For guidance from Wu Anjun, please contact: Wu Tingting: 021 51595784 13795448891

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