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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 10,2019 09:28CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 10th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: non-agricultural data poor market expects to cut interest rates, Mexican tariffs are expected to be avoided, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors emphasize a coordinated response to global risks, and basic metals are under pressure. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:




Shanghai: zinc futures are higher, and at the same time, the monthly difference is further expanded to about 520 yuan / ton. On the last trading day, the holder actively shipped the goods, and the willingness to lock in the plate profit was not strong. A small amount of transactions were made at a discount of 30 yuan to 20 yuan per ton. The transaction of 10 yuan / ton discount quoted by individual brands also shows that the trading between traders is more active, and the consignors are more willing to receive the goods at a low price. However, due to cost considerations, the holders have no intention of further price adjustment. And part of the downstream festival period holiday reserve demand is not strong, orders are not good, the procurement stock is relatively cold, the actual consumption is still weak, the overall transaction is basically flat compared with yesterday. Guangdong: zinc futures run at a low level, refineries ship normally, early in the morning, the monthly difference expands, the market is more confused about the quotation, most of them are quoted around the average price, or around the average price + 10, making a certain contribution to the transaction, and the rest are mainly quoted for the contract of the current month. Reported in the Shanghai Zinc 1906 contract discount of 30 to 20 yuan / ton. Entering the second trading period, the market price is stable in the vicinity of 1907 yuan / ton of zinc contract in Shanghai. Under the strength of the market, the rising water remained strong, and the holders were reluctant to take the initiative to lower the rising water. Subsequently, the transaction fell into a stalemate. Downstream is still dominated by rigid demand procurement, part of the downstream due to poor orders, Dragon Boat Festival holiday, so the pre-festival reserve has not been obvious. Overall, today's trading was flat, basically flat yesterday. Tianjin: normal shipment of refineries, the market supply of goods is more abundant. The disk surface rose slightly, and the holders actively shipped the goods. In the morning, the quotations for ordinary brands focused on the discount of 40 to 50 yuan per ton for 06 contracts, and the sources of high-priced brands such as Zijin were quoted for 50 yuan per ton for 06 contracts. However, the consumer side in the lower reaches of June entered the off-season, and on Tuesday, the price fell, and there were more replenishment warehouses downstream. Today, the willingness to pick up goods downstream was not good. Subsequently, some Zijin shippers lowered their water supply by about 30 yuan / ton. Report in the vicinity of $20 per tonne for the 06 contract. After the price adjustment, there are some transactions, but Zijin brand supply of a small amount, still failed to contribute to a larger trading volume. Today, Tianjin market trading atmosphere continued light, coinciding with Dragon Boat Festival short holiday eve but still no reserve phenomenon, the overall transaction situation is poor yesterday. Inventory: as of June 6, the social inventory of zinc in the three places was 900 tons lower than that on June 3, down 3500 tons from May 31 to 140400 tons, with little change in the overall inventory. Some refineries in Shanghai increased delivery and storage, but Tianjin Guangdong Refinery did not deliver much. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, prices fell more a few days ago. Downstream stocks were slightly replenished, and inventories recorded a small drop. SMM expects there may be a slight increase in inventories after the holiday. Bonded area inventory: according to SMM research, as of June 6, zinc stocks in Shanghai bonded area decreased by 1200 tons to 105500 tons compared with May 31. This week, the Shanghai-London ratio was revised upward, and the import loss was obviously narrowed, and some of the imported zinc was transferred to China. However, the window is still narrow and the amount of deflation is still on the low side. Zinc price: last Friday, Len Zinc independently ran between the 5th and 10th EMA, the KDJ index tended to be flat, superimposed integer suppression, and the upward space of Len Zinc was limited. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival closed, Shanghai Zinc had no night trading on Friday. Although there are a small number of downstream reserves before the Dragon Boat Festival, but in the case of subsequent refinery increment, the accumulation pool is still expected, and the action energy on the main 1908 contract of Shanghai Zinc is still limited. Forecast today: expected to run at US $2475 / t, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract / t / t or around 199000-20400 / t. Material 0 # domestic rose 240.

price forecast

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