Summary of the lead morning meeting:
Macro:
It is reported that US President Donald Trump has announced that he has reached a trade agreement with Mexico and that measures originally scheduled to impose tariffs on Mexico on Monday will be "suspended indefinitely." According to the joint statement, Mexico is committed to taking unprecedented measures to strengthen law enforcement, curb illegal immigration, and strengthen cooperation in southern Mexico and the central United States.
Us data: imports of goods hit a 15-month low in April, as a result of which the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in April. Non-farm payrolls rose 75000 in May, the lowest level in three months, less than half of what was expected (175000). The data heightened concerns among investors about a slowdown in the U. S. economy amid trade tensions, and markets expected the Fed to cut interest rates. Employment is the most important economic indicator in the United States at present. Historical data show that the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States is closely related to the growth rate of GDP, so the decline in new jobs means that the US economy is slowing down sharply.
In the middle of the year, the people's Bank of China announced that in order to hedge the influence of factors such as MLF and reverse repo maturity and government bond issuance and payment, and to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system, 500 billion yuan one-year MLF operation was carried out, and the bid interest rate was 3.3 percent. The same as the previous period;
According to the tariff Commission of the State Council, the United States will continue to maintain technical measures such as 10% tariffs on related goods that were offshore from China before May 10 and entered the United States before June 15. Do not change the nature of its increase in tariffs from 10 May;
The people's Bank of China said it would provide targeted liquidity support to small and medium-sized banks and that the Finance Committee would study maintaining the stability of interbank business.
Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, said in an exclusive interview that whether the US-China trade negotiations can continue to be full of uncertainty and difficulties, if the trade war worsens, China has enough policy room to deal with it, and hinted that the RMB exchange rate does not have a red line;
Today, we focus on China's trade and foreign reserves data for May.
Fundamentals:
Last week, lead prices continued to operate within the range, but due to the downturn in terminal consumption, some storage enterprises reduced production to deal with, the market trading is relatively light, storage enterprises wait and see carefully; In terms of primary lead, some refineries began to repair one after another this week, but the compression of supply could not offset the low consumption. As of Thursday, the mainstream price of SMM1# lead in refineries was 50 yuan / ton to flat water. Trade is also affected by this, the holder frequently downgraded spot water, as of Thursday, domestic lead ordinary brand mainstream quotation for 1906 contract flat water to 50 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, refinery production is still in a state of slight loss, as of last Thursday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead to maintain the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton to flat water factory;
In addition, last week, the social inventory of lead ingots in Shanghai and Guangdong rose by about 800 tons to 8700 tons compared with Friday, while the total social inventory fell by more than 500 tons to 34300 tons.
Lead price:
Lun lead plummeted so that the market speculative bulls give up entry, Lun lead returned to the platform shock position, the short-term is still expected to run around $1800, the market opened today;
SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat to 25 yuan per ton today.
